achieve this a number of specialised privatisation methods will be required.
The most successful experience has been demonstrated in the Czech Republic
and Slovenia and, albeit under different conditions, in the former East
Germany. The main aim of these methods in my opinion should be: firstly to
demonopolise the large-scale enterprises inherited from totalitarian times,
to preserve those with the greatest potential and to transform them into
trans-national corporations; secondly, a reliable stock exchange system
should be developed wherein a significant part of these enterprises can be
sold by means of mass privatisation, market methods and the substitution of
debt against ownership; thirdly, the necessary legislative framework needs
to be developed to allow for privatisation by management teams as well as
the possibility for as many small and medium enterprises as possible to be
established for the use and gradual purchase by citizens; fourthly, the
possibility for workers' collectives to receive without payment ownership in
the enterprises in which they are employed.
The eventual aim of such policies will be for the majority of the
population within 5-10 years to integrated within the structures of
ownership in the aims of establishing the economic basis for a civil
society.
The third major problem of the post-communist countries will be their
integration within the world economy. As can be seen from table 6, between
1985-1993 and 1989-1993 five Eastern European states which were analysed
achieved an increase in their trade with the EU. Although slowly, the market
share of these countries in the European market began to increase.
Nevertheless the processes of rapprochement analysed using the Maastricht
criteria are extremely contradictory and slow (table 7). This shows that on
the whole the process of the integration of the Eastern European countries
into the EU will be delayed. The initial predictions of 10-15 years to
integration have been revised to the years 2005-2010 at the earliest.
Table 6
Trade in industrial goods between the EU and the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe.
(millions of ECU at current prices, market share in % of the
entire trade of the EU with other countries).
CEE
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Import EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993*
5146
7532
8222
9303
10525
13598
16736
12674
3,56
3,23
2,80
2,76
3,06
3,63
4,43
4,55
242
362
350
398
441
600
762
572
0,17
0,16
0,12
0,12
0,13
0,16
0,20
0,21
1139
1875
1950
2228
2401
3678
5102
3840
0,79
0,80
0,66
0,66
0,70
0,98
1,35
1,38
1131
1616
1816
2182
2547
3138
3554
2468
0,78
0,69
0,62
0,65
0,74
0,84
0,94
0,89
1709
2149
2552
2842
3962
4973
5984
4662
1,18
0,92
0,87
0,85
1,15
1,33
1,58
1,67
924
1530
1555
1654
1174
1209
1334
1132
0,64
0,66
0,53
0,49
0,34
0,32
0,35
0,41
Export EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993**
6808
8648
8412
10079
10522
15213
18875
15914
3,53
2,63
2,58
2,73
2,84
3,99
4,79
5,27
681
1378
1300
1323
818
895
977
777
0,35
0,42
0,40
0,36
0,22
0,24
0,25
0,26
1126
1730
1969
2142
2343
3428
5628
4582
0,58
0,53
0,60
0,58
0,63
0,90
1,43
1,52
1424
2254
2123
2673
2624
3136
3745
3173
0,74
0,69
0,65
0,72
0,71
0,82
0,95
1,05
2206
2324
2460
3299
3717
6663
6967
6051
1,14
0,71
0,75
0,89
1,00
1,75
1,77
2,00
1371
963
559
642
1021
1091
1557
1332
0,71
0,29
0,17
0,17
0,28
0,29
0,40
0,44
Eurostat and European Commission Services
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 63).
* January--September
** January--September
Table 7
Do the countries of Central and Eastern Europe fulfil the criteria
for membership of the EU as set out in Maastricht?
Criteria
Bulgari
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Slovakia
Complete convertibility
Strong Central Bank
Low inflation
Low public debt
Low budget deficit
Low interest rate
Convertible currency
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
National sources; OECD -- estimates and projections, Qvigstad, 1992;
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 39).
The fourth problem is the integration of the technology of the Fourth
Civilisation and the reconstruction of their own industries. The opening-up
of the markets of the Eastern European countries and the invasion of
competitors from all four corners of the world has created a danger that
some of the more progressive sectors of the economy will collapse. In
certain countries, Bulgaria for example, there is evidence of a process of
detechnologisation or the reduction of high-technology production in
comparison with the 1980's. The high level of outdated and worn-out
industrial machinery in Slovakia and Bulgaria has delayed progress. This
criterion is proof of how important it is to have a correct policy for
foreign investment and skilfully to combine the pre--1989 achievements with
world markets and technological structures.
The fifth problem is the development of a market infrastructure
adequate for the New Civilisation. To this extent the countries of the
Visegrad group and Slovenia are undoubtedly in a position of advantage in
comparison with the other former socialist countries. There is no doubt that
after the fall of the Berlin Wall the Eastern European peoples began a
process of rapprochement and integration with the world economy. The
universal processes of globalisation and the spirit of the Fourth
Civilisation have not left the post-communist countries untouched. The great
choice with which they were faced between 1989 and 1990 was totalitarianism
or democracy and a market economy. The great choice between 1993-6 and the
end of the century will be primitive capitalism or new civilisation.
An analysis of the economic and political situation shows that the
former members of COMECON are no longer an homogenous regional group. This
is due not only to the collapse of the common Eastern European market but
also to the different policies which the different governments have been
pursuing. In the mid-1990's the division between Central and Eastern Europe
was an artificially imposed concept. Now, however, it seems more realistic.
The Central European countries, sometimes referred to as the Visegrad Group
and Slovenia, are integrating significantly more rapidly than the remaining
countries and economically are becoming quite distinct. The second group has
a slightly different fate - the three small former Baltic republics of the
USSR who are seeking a channel into Europe by means of developing closer
ties with the Scandinavian countries, Germany and the U.K. Finally, there is
the third group of the Balkan states - Bulgaria, Rumania, Yugoslavia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia where internal disputes and conflicts have
delayed their development significantly. The division of the former members
of COMECON into separate regional groups could lead to delays in their
integration the European Union and increase in the internal disputes.
After the post-communist countries, Russia and China are of particular
significance. With their size and resources they have an independent and
significant geo-political role. In Russia the problems of transition are
many time more complex than those of the smaller countries of Central and
Eastern Europe. Political stability, the expansion of the market
infrastructure and the redistribution of ownership are, in my opinion, the
strategic problems of this great power. It is very likely that as we
approach the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation Russia will for a long
time remain in the orbit of state, corporative capitalism. Arguments in
support of this are the concentration of privatised giant state industry in
the hands of a very small group of the population and the close connections
between this group and the state bureaucracy. China without any doubt will
increase its role in the world which in its turn will increase its political
stability and the continued awesome development of its massive economy. A
open question for China will be the choice between a single party system and
political pluralism with the preservation of the stability and integrity of
the country.
As can be seen, the post-communist countries are divided not by
criteria of democracy-communism but by types of democracy and their
closeness to the Fourth Civilisation. Some of them will become integrated
quite quickly into the directions of progress, others will turn back to the
era of corporate, semi-state capitalism. There is no doubt that the
transition will be complex and drawn-out and will take place in stages and
with the deepening differentiation between the Eastern European countries.
The direction of this transition in the long-run will lead to integration
with the economic and political systems of the most developed countries in
the world.
4. THE APPROACH AND THE END OF THE "THIRD WORLD"
Integration leads either to imperialist violence or the rapprochement
of social systems and the improved conditions of life.
U
ntil the end of the 1980's politicians and academics divided the world
into three parts: capitalist, socialist and the Third World - the world of
the economically backwards countries. Ideologues on the two sides of the
Berlin Wall divided the Third World into those countries with capitalist
systems and those with socialist orientation. Today, this "structure" has
entirely lost any meaning. The socialist world has evaporated and capitalism
has become transformed into something else. The "Third World" has changed
and no longer represents a community of countries with similar
charasteristics.
Until 6 or 7 years ago the Third World was defined as something
unspecific which would eventually merge with the first or the second. Today,
however, one has to use different criteria in evaluating any particular
country. In my opinion these criteria are based on the outlines of the new,
Fourth Civilisation, from those processes and phenomena which symbolise the
leading trends of modern progress. I would place the accent on three of them
in particular: 1. the share of high-technology production and activities
within the GDP; 2. the structure of ownership and social groups;3. the level
of socialisation of ownership and the integration of the market;4. the
openness of countries and the stability of their national manufacturing and
culture; 5. the GDP per head of population.
By using these criteria quantitively and qualitively we can propose
another global structure to the countries of the world. The first group is
of those countries which are symbols of human progress and which are in
transition from the Third Civilisation and to a large extent are the basis
for the Fourth Civilisation. For them the advent of the new civilisation is
already irreversible. I would include here the members of the European group
with the exception of Greece and Portugal, the USA and Canada, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Iceland, Malta and
a number of other states. The second group is of those countries which on
the basis of certain factors are on the edge of the Fourth Civilisation or
remain within the traditions of the 20th century. They are on the threshold
of the new civilisation but are essentially at a different level of progress
from those countries within the first group. I could include here the new
Asian Dragons - Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea,
Taiwan as well as countries like Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Costa Rica,
Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. The third group would include such countries
which have an industrial or semi-industrial structure and state capitalist
or some form of oligarchical or monarchist social structure.: Russia, China,
Rumania, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the
UAE, Pakistan, the majority of Latin American countries, Tunisia, Egypt,
Morocco, the Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico and a number of
others. These countries have not yet achieved political stability and
economic balance. The fourth and last group includes countries whose
manufacturing and social relations are partially within the third and
partially within earlier structures of civlisation. These are the majority
of the African, some Asian nations and a number of countries of the Near
East. These countries are sometimes referred to as the "forgotten" nations
and need special help and programmes to link them to the rest of the world
and to overcome problems of poverty and illness.
Is it possible to speak of a common transition of civilisation when no
more than one fifth of the world's population lives in conditions similar to
those which we refer to as the transition to the Fourth Civilisation and
more than one third in conditions typical of the transition from the Second
to the Third? The basis for a positive answer to this question is
integration, the speed at which countries are coming together in the
conditions of globalisation. As a consequence of the openness of the large
majority of countries and the expansion of the world market the transfer of
new technologies and the management model is much easier and faster than at
any other time in the history of mankind.
The example with the countries of South East Asia shows that given a
suitable political climate countries can penetrate world markets and achieve
significant results. The rate of development in South Korea over the past 30
years has allowed it to overtake many of the Eastern European countries
which in the first half of the 1960's were significantly more
advanced.[48] The example of the Asian Dragons will be followed
by a number of individual states in Northern Africa and the Near East. Thus
we can speak of the collapse and the restructuring of the countries of the
"Third World". The Eastern Europeans have great potential. Other countries
such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa also have strong
possibilities. They and a dozen or so smaller countries will gradually begin
to approach the highly developed countries - the leading figures in the new
civilisation.
For more than half a century, many of the leaders of the Third World
have been looking for their own direction in the struggle to combat poverty
and make progress. Ghandi and Neru in India, Mao and Dun Saopin in China,
Castro in Cuba, Sengor, Tutu and Kenyatta in Africa have conducted their own
experiments with varying degrees of success. The main question for all the
poorly developed nations is not to demonstrate their uniqueness but to
become incorporated into the trends of progress and the post-industrialised
Fourth Civilisation. The fear that foreign investments, progress in the West
and the open commodity and financial markets will undermine national pride
and specific cultural features is not always justified. Such dependence
exists only in the most corrupt regimes and where an imperialistic type of
dependence has been allowed to develop.
Technological and social progress even in the conditions of the open
market does not inevitably lead to the death of national cultures and
identity. In fact the opposite is often the case. The experience of China,
South Korea and Singapore has shown that only against the background of a
well developed economy can national and ethnic culture be preserved for the
future.
In the global world national identity and specific cultural features
will manifest themselves only at a certain level of economic development
when poverty and backwardness has been overcome. Nevertheless it will be
difficult for the dreams of the apostles of Black Africa or Che Guevara to
come true. The closed nature of the societies, corrupt regimes, the lack of
law and order and ethnic calm will continue to maintain the countries of the
"Third World" in the orbit of the past.
When I refute the division of the countries of the world into three
groups within the bi-polar model of the world, I, naturally, realise how
important it is to adopt a clear position in support of an alternative for
future development. The current lack of order and chaos has made many
proponents of change wait to see what direction change will take. My
understanding of this question is that for the next few years we shall live
in a multi-sector world with an enormous diversity of economic and social
conditions with enormous differences in economic levels. When I speak of the
multiplicity of sectors, I mean a multiplicity of political and economic
forms, political systems and specific governmental decisions.
At the same time I can see no other prospect for development apart from
growing integration and the gradual reduction of differences conditioned by
the integration of world financial markets. To this extent the multiplicity
of sectors is a transitional state despite the relative stability of the
world. The differences inherent in the form of ownership and political
systems will gradually disappear. On the other hand economic advances will
allow for the protection of the cultural diversity of the world and
spiritual identity.
5. BALANCED DEVELOPMENT
Post-capitalism and post-communism are stages inthe process of the
collapse of the Third Civilisation. The major question is what will replace
it? I believe that it will replaced by the societies of the Fourth
Civilisation -- societies of balanced development.
R
epresentatives of individual historical eras are bound to the limits of
their own time and are unable to see the world as a whole. All the major
ideological doctrines of the last few centuries have been linked to the need
for the resolution of group, regional or class contradictions. Global
thought was and continues to have little attraction for philosophers and
politicians. Even in the 20th century when world globalisation is gradually
on the increase, ideological and political doctrines have developed in
accordance with the conditions in one or a group of countries and specific
ideological models have imposed themselves through force.
Marxism-Leninism claimed to be a teaching for the whole of humanity.
However, despite Marx's attempt to evaluate the Asian methods of production
his doctrine did not take into account the cultural and historical
development of China and India. The imposition of Marxist or western
bourgeois models upon completely different cultural and historical roots was
a manifestation of philosophical and ideological monopolism. The 20th has
century provided us with many forms of Marxism and Liberalism but with the
increase in democracy more local cultural features have begun to dominate
over ideologies.
Today, while the Third Civilisation is in a process of disintegration
many things have not yet changed. The global approach has made its mark and
is no longer considered absurd or abstract challenge. The UN has taken on
more responsibility and increased its role in the world. A number of new
formations involved in global issues have arisen. One major result of such
processes was the summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 at which
politicians from all over the world gathered in the name of the survival of
humanity. However, up to now these efforts have not yet produced any serious
results. Despite the conflicts evident in the world, despite the complete
irrationality of manufacturing structures, despite the continuing
destruction of forests and cultivable land, humanity continues to exist in
the condition of nationalist thinking or class, social and other types of
doctrines.
While global reseach is mainly directed towards environmental and
philosophical problems, there are still those who aspire to defend one
system, one model or one culture. In the risk of repeating myself, I
consider such attempts absurd. Neither socialism, nor capitalism, not the
political models of the countries of the Third World can serve today as
universal models for life on earth. There is little doubt that globalisation
and global culture will continue to penetrate the common principles and
standards of life. However, this process will take place through
manifestations of local culture, as well as specific national, regional and
ethnic features.
The modern world will no longer accept unified "military" models of
development. The dialectics of globalisation and localisation, the advent of
the new civilisation can offer a new model. If it is democratic and not
imperialistic as in the 20th century. There is no longer any room for
universal doctrines in the new era. Universal principles and legal standards
-- yes, universal ideologies and models -- no. "Yes" because of the
inevitable integration and mutual dependence of countries, "No" because of
the resolute and growing diversity of human life.
The 20th century was a century of imperialism and forced globalisation.
The 21st century will be a century of intermixing and synthesis of different
cultures and ideas. I am convinced that the time has come to pose the
question of the type and the direction of general world development and of
the main principles and trends of the Fourth Civilisation. In this way the
danger of global chaos and the resolution of global contradictions through
myriad local wars, tension and never-ending disputes may be avoided.
At the end of the 20th century, humanity has reached a stage in its
development wherein no single nation can impose itself on others and no
single country can exist in isolation from the others. This is the effect of
globalisation and the constant increase in mutual dependence while on the
other hand there is a marked growth in the role of local cultures. After the
fall of the Berlin Wall three quarters of the population of the world now
live in conditions of free economic initiative and more than 90% of the
countries of the world have multi-party democracies. Human rights, the free
movement of information and people are becoming more and more an integral
part of life. Communism, fascism, Moaism and Polpotism have collapsed.
Liberal capitalism is being gradually eroded by the growth in new
technology, the growing role of small and medium business and anti-trust
legislation. Socialism as it was once known by so many nations has been
consigned to the past.
What then will be the typical features of global development n the 21st
century? Over the past few years many of the industrial nations of the world
have begun to speak of "sustainable development". This was initially an
environmental concept, a combination of the models of the developed Western
societies and the desire to preserve life on Earth. A number of writers have
attempted to use this concept to make more comprehensive evaluations of
future economic growth, types of manufacturing and the challenges facing
future generations.[49]
However, the concept of "sustainable development" is still unclear and
unnecessarily generalised. It is useful in that it links many varied
national models to the common problems of humanity. Its inadequacy is that
it does not analyse such fundamental questions such as global political and
economic structures, the re-distribution of ownership and authority and
control over the media etc.. However, the concept of sustainable development
does not provide an answer to the major question -- what comes after
post-capitalism and post-communism? What will be the result of their fusion?
I would link the answer to this question with the concept of balanced
development. From a micro-economic and regional point of view it is not new.
The new aspect which I have added is to link it with the global transition
to the new, Fourth Civilisation.
The first general theory of economic balance was created by L.Walras
and V.Pareto, (the Losanne school of political economy). Their aim was to
create abstract mathematical models which provided a ratio between supply
and demand. In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th A.Kurno,
W.Jevans and A.Marshall made significant contributions to the formation of
the classical views of market balance. During the second half of the 20th
century, G.Hicks and P.Samuelson formed a "political synthesis" based on the
studies by the great Swiss economists nd the classic writers on bourgeois
political economy. The Hicks-Allan model is perhaps the best expression of
market balance.[50] It combines the process of the maximum use
for each consumer within the limitations of his income and the maximum
profit for each entrepreneur within the limitations of his produce to
produce a balance between supply and demand.
L.Walras come to some particularly valuable conclusions on the role of
the state in the establishment of balance and his advocacy of the principle,
"balance of opportunity against imbalance of the the factual
situation"[51]. Walras considered the liberal "Laissez Faire"
doctrine as a pure illusion and included the regulating role of the state in
his balanced system. He supports the cooperative movement and is the only
one of many like-minded thinkers to tackle the question of ownership. To be
unaware of the work of L.Walras is to be unaware of one of the most
brilliant writers on economic and political science.
The balanced economic theory of the Lauzanne school and to a lesser
extent the school of the neo-classicists is an initial pre-condition for
what I refer to as balanced development. At a theoretical and methodological
level a number of Marx's conclusions on ownership and the state are also
useful.[52] This can also be said of the ideas of "cooperative
socialism". In contrast to L.Walras, however, I do not see balance as an
ineluctable state or a description of the market but as part of the general
reforms of civilisation. The difference is that I approach balance not from
the point of view of the conditionally limited market but from a global
point of view. In my opinion, balance is not an ideal model but a trend.
There is no eternal balance, there is politics and specific historical
conditions within which it can be achieved. Moreover, I believe that balance
is not only an economic category but a tangential point for economic,
political and cultural processes.
The great modern significance of balanced development comes from the
bankruptcy of "communist nationalisation" and the inadequacy of liberal
doctrines. During the entire period of the 20th century these two concepts
did not contribute either balance of harmony. In fact the opposite -- they
caused innumberable contradictions and hundreds of wars. Pure liberalism
divided the world into the rich and the poor and will clearly continue to do
so as long as it is predominant in the world. Communism, in its very first
stage, brought about the total nationalisation of life and killed freedom
and civil societies. The idea of balanced development is an expression of
the new theoretical synthesis and the link between it and the globalisation
of the world.
From a national domestic point of view balanced development is a trend,
as well as a supporting policy, towards the redistribution of ownership
amongst the largest possible number of citizens and the gradual limitation
of the monopolistic role of families and individuals. Balanced development
is not a revolutionary but a reformist concept -- an expression of the
post-capitalist and post-communist development of the world. To this extent
it is a generalised expression not only of the division and redistribution
of ownership but also its socialisation. Integration and mutual dependence
within the manufacturing processes and financial operations, the transition
from a chaotic to an organised and computerised market presuppose the
interweaving of interests of the traditional and the new social groups and
strata. The gradual, logical and deliberate balancing of the market provides
above all for general economic balance. It is here that the Hicks-Allen
equation needs significant enhancement to take into account the increased
consumption of services and the role of new art forms in the industrialised
states.
At high levels of economic balance the objective role of the state in
the redistribution of ownership is reduced and vice versa. In a balanced
society the state fulfils a supportive and regulative role up to the moment
of the establishment of self-regulation and the horizontal balance of the
system. Neither the state, nor the civil society has permanent limits but
gradually during the processes of its maturation society overwhelms the
state, not the other way around. Of course, this does not mean that
centralised regulation will die or that the nation state will disappear
tomorrow.
Balanced development presupposes "balanced" human rights for all. The
basic pre-condition for the consolidation of balance is the provision of the
individual rights of citizens, their freedom to choose, to associate and to
be protected from the hindrances of bureaucracy. For this reason the corner
stones of democracy -- the freedom of speech and the press, the free
movement of people, goods and capital are the fundamental basis for balanced
development. This also requires the involvement of the state in the economy
and other areas on the principle of minimal sufficiency, as a guarantor of
civil rights and a factor in the formation of a dynamic social environment.
In contrast to liberalism, however, balanced development is possible only
with the redistribution of ownership amongst the growing part of the
population and its socialisation and integration. There are clear
differences between balanced development and the traditional (until the
1970's) concepts of social democracy. While the foundations of social
democracy defined a priori the role of the state within society and
presupposes nationalisation and greater or lesser levels of state control,
balanced development presupposes the minimalisation of the role of the state
with simultaneous horizontal socialisation. This excludes monopolism by a
small group of the extremely rich and the state bureaucracy. Only in this
context can there be any "balance" of difference social groups or relative
"balance of opportunity" (L.Walras) and social justice.
Balanced development presupposes the association of different ethnic
groups and cultures within the framework of the national state and the
global world. In general this concept is an expression of the expansion of
the relations within a civil society and the current notion of human rights.
Balanced development is inseparable from the legislative resolution of a
series of social rights (life, health, work, education, maternity, pensions
etc..) not only as the responsibility of the executive authorities but as
the responsibility of civil society. This takes the form of social funds,
companies, charitable organisations etc. which are independent of the state.
This also leads to the need for the protection of the private life of the
individual. There can be no balanced development if the social security of
citizens is not guaranteed in a new way. This concerns the protection of the
family, women and children, pregnancy and maternity, personal, genetic,
ethnic and behavioural information.
Balanced development presupposes the existence of any specific feature
which does not negate any another, the combination and mutual harmony of all
the features of mankind and social and ethnic groups. The political regimes
and the cultures of the Third Civilisation imposed their models and cultures
through violence. The Fourth Civilisation and its main features -- balanced
development means the rejection of such practices. Most significantly, this
doctrine could become a common reality only if applied globally. It is
already clear that any further increase in the gap of imbalance between
indivual nations stimulates chaos in the world and will cause even greater
damage within the most developed countries. I recently heard someone say in
a small Bulgarian town, "How can I live peacefully, when there is poverty
all around me and rising crime?" These were the words of a well-off man who
was aware of the simple economic truth that if you are richer than others,
you become the object of their dissatisfaction. This is something which will
have to be understood in the industrialised western countries. Otherwise,
sooner or later they will be obliged to isolate themselves and to experience
the hatred of the poor.
The outcome is clear: gradually and inexorably, in accordance with the
norms of the global world, economic levels will balance out. In other words,
balanced development is only possible and necessary in the international
aspect, both as a consequence of and a precondition for the global market.
This requires changes in the international economic order and global
regulation which I will mention at a later stage. Balanced development
presupposes the creation of an environment for intermixing, cohabitation and
development within the universal market and legislative frameworks of
different cultures. Instead of cultural imperialism there will be a
muliticultural society, instead of enmity between countries with different
political and economic regimes, there will be rapprochement and a reduction
of the multiplicity of economic sectors. There will also be an new trend in
geo-politics: instead of imperialism and the domination of one or a group of
states there will be a gradual process of policentrism.
In the next chapters I will attempt to prove that the trends emerging
at the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation and its main outlining feature
-- balanced development -- are irreversible. At the same time I realise the
strength of the inertia inherited from the past and the strength of other
factors which want to delay global change. When I set out my views on
balanced development before a mixed Bulgarian political auditorium I
received two profoundly different reactions. The representatives of the
former communist party said, "You've gone too far to the right." The other
half of the auditorium occupied by members of the anti-communist groups
commented, "This is left-wing babble".
In reality balanced development is neither one nor the other. It is not
me who has gone to the right or to the left but time and human progress
which have gone forward.
Chapter Seven
OBSTRUCTIONS
1. THE DEFENDERS OF THE THIRD CIVILISATION
During the entire period of the 20th century, the representatives of
different classes, nations and blocs have battled with each other. They
created the industry of confrontation and the belief in its eternity. Today
these same people are the defenders of the Third Civilisation.
E
very historical phenomenon has its own driving forces as well as its
own obstacles. The advent of any phenomenon on the historical scene does not
come as an overnight victory -- this is the illusion of revolutionaries --
but as the result of the gradual propulsion of the driving forces against
the obstacles which always exist to the new. This is also true for the
Fourth Civilisation. The Fourth Civilisation could be accelerated or
hindered by a series of political, economic and moral factors. Although we
are living through the last years of the Third Civilisation, it still has
many adherents. The inertia of the past is alive and its advocates
constantly refer back to the old formulae, "How good it used to be in the
past." I once discussed this issue with one of the initiators of the process
of perestroika in the USSR, A.Yakovliev.[53] I asked him what was
the reason for the conservatism of the older population in Eastern Europe.
He joked in response, "Well, their wives were younger then!"
There is perhaps something a element of truth in this joke.
Conservatives in principle support the regimes and systems for which they
have struggled all their lives. They always tend to over-dramatise the
difficulties of the transition and consider any changes a deviation from the
true belief. Moreover, conservatives are not only divided according to age
or to party membership. There are pensioners who support the coming of the
new and young conservatives with opinions set in concrete. In Eastern Europe
the conservatives are concentrated mainly amongst the former communists, the
former security forces but also amongst many members of the old bourgeois
class who are involved in the struggle for political revenge and the
re-establishment of the political status quo from the time before the Second
World War. In the West the defenders of the old civilisation recognise only
the collapse of communism as a symbol of change and their own thoughts do
not go beyond their own privileges and global domination.
This is an historical paradox. The defenders of the Third Civilisation
are not divided into countries and ideologies. They are all enamoured to a
greater or lesser extent of the structures of the bi-polar model and the
cold war. Masses of anticommunists and anticapitalists, Liberals and
Marxists, capitalists and party bureaucrats, generals and spies piously
believe in their correctness and their way of life. Of course, it would be
improper to reject their past, or the struggles they waged, not the fact
that each one of them in his own way may have been an honourable defender of
his native land. However, this is not the most important element. The most
signicant thing is that they are defending models and attitudes which have
crippled the 20th century and transformed it into the most bloody century in
the history of mankind.
The 20th century will be the last century of belligerent nationalism,
imperialism and the domination of one nation over another. However, albeit
with weakened authority, those political forces who advocated such phenomena
have not disappeared. There are still insufficient guarantees that
globalisation will not give rise to imperialism or that the reaction to this
will not provide more opportunities to nationalism and autarchy. While
thought and ideological criteria remain within the framework of egoistical
national iterests, while global awareness is still undeveloped, the
conflicts of the passing century are still possible.
The question is whether we are for or against the structures of the old
civilisation -- for or against the emerging structures of the new time.
Those who dream of the renewed domination of one nation over another, of
imbalanced international economic conditions, of party and nomenclature
leaders, of media monopolism, of the eternalisation of differences in living
standards are on one side of the barricade. Yesterday the party bureaucrats
and the capitalists were opponents. Today they might even become allies in
the struggle for survival and the survival of the structures of the Third
Civilisation. Still prisoners to their old ideologies and international
confrontations they maintain those ideas and structures which could still
return us to the time of the Cold War or grant us a period of Cold Peace.
Fighting with each other, the proponents of the Third Civilisation can only
renew fears, thoughts and activities which leave us in the grips of the
past.
In Spain there is a monument to the memory of both the supporters of
Franco and the Republicans. In one and the same place, under one and the
same cross are gathered the honour and the debt, the errors and mistakes,
the greatness and the perdition of people who killed one another. The names
of the killers are illumiated by those of the victims, whatever side they
may have fought for, whatever side of the barrier they may have belonged to.
In Spain the reconciliation of history is already a fact. In Bulgaria, the
former Yugoslavia and partially in Poland there are still many people who
believed that Gorbachev was a CIA agent while in the USA there are those who
consider Clinton an American communist.
The sooner such thinking disappears, the sooner we shall become awards
of the problems and the greatness of the new civilisation. In order to
understand the new, we must forget the old language, the old categories of
division, the old enmities and prejudices. The Cold War is over but the Cold
Peace and mistrust could unknowingly lead us back to it. Unfortunately this
is not all. The life of the Third Civilisation could be prolonged via the
maintainance of the economic and political structures which were typical of
the 20th century. In most general terms, these structures can be united into
two mutually conditional phenomena, which albeit in different forms have
supported the current world conflicts. These are imperialism and nationalism
and their modern manifestations. As paradoxical as it might seem, these two
satellites of the 20th century are supported by one common culture -- that
of violence and confrontation. The alternative to violence and confrontation
is tolerance -- the recognition of differences, respect for the problems of
others, responsibility to help those who are worse off. Perhaps, it is
indeed tolerance as an alternative to violence which is the most important
feature of the political culture of the Fourth Civilisation.
2. THE GREAT THREAT -- MEDIA IMPERIALISM
With the passing of the Third Civilisation it is also possible that the
imperialist dependencies between nations will disappear. However if the
abstract liberal trends of the past continue to develop this may lead to new
forms of imperialist domination -- less overt but with equally dangerous
consequences.
T
he first manifestations of the global world were inseparably linked
with the ambitions of empire and the growing power of the most developed
countries of the time. The colonial system, international trusts and
cartels, the redistribution of the world into zones of influence and two
world wars was an expression of imperialist domination. The division of the
world into two systems and the cold war was also a form of international
imperialism.
The main slogan used by Lenin, Stalin and their followers was the
"struggle against imperialism". They, however, created a system closely
based on imperial allegiance. If Gorbachev with his power had begun a
process of the gradual reconstruction of Eastern Europe and the world,
imperialism could have been replaced by the agreed establishment of a new
world economic, informational and legislative order. I am convinced that
such a policy would have found support amongst the majority of the political
and intellectual circles in the West.
Gorbachev's failure was to allow the Eastern European regimes to
collapse without any dignity opening the way for the globalisation of the
The most successful experience has been demonstrated in the Czech Republic
and Slovenia and, albeit under different conditions, in the former East
Germany. The main aim of these methods in my opinion should be: firstly to
demonopolise the large-scale enterprises inherited from totalitarian times,
to preserve those with the greatest potential and to transform them into
trans-national corporations; secondly, a reliable stock exchange system
should be developed wherein a significant part of these enterprises can be
sold by means of mass privatisation, market methods and the substitution of
debt against ownership; thirdly, the necessary legislative framework needs
to be developed to allow for privatisation by management teams as well as
the possibility for as many small and medium enterprises as possible to be
established for the use and gradual purchase by citizens; fourthly, the
possibility for workers' collectives to receive without payment ownership in
the enterprises in which they are employed.
The eventual aim of such policies will be for the majority of the
population within 5-10 years to integrated within the structures of
ownership in the aims of establishing the economic basis for a civil
society.
The third major problem of the post-communist countries will be their
integration within the world economy. As can be seen from table 6, between
1985-1993 and 1989-1993 five Eastern European states which were analysed
achieved an increase in their trade with the EU. Although slowly, the market
share of these countries in the European market began to increase.
Nevertheless the processes of rapprochement analysed using the Maastricht
criteria are extremely contradictory and slow (table 7). This shows that on
the whole the process of the integration of the Eastern European countries
into the EU will be delayed. The initial predictions of 10-15 years to
integration have been revised to the years 2005-2010 at the earliest.
Table 6
Trade in industrial goods between the EU and the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe.
(millions of ECU at current prices, market share in % of the
entire trade of the EU with other countries).
CEE
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Import EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993*
5146
7532
8222
9303
10525
13598
16736
12674
3,56
3,23
2,80
2,76
3,06
3,63
4,43
4,55
242
362
350
398
441
600
762
572
0,17
0,16
0,12
0,12
0,13
0,16
0,20
0,21
1139
1875
1950
2228
2401
3678
5102
3840
0,79
0,80
0,66
0,66
0,70
0,98
1,35
1,38
1131
1616
1816
2182
2547
3138
3554
2468
0,78
0,69
0,62
0,65
0,74
0,84
0,94
0,89
1709
2149
2552
2842
3962
4973
5984
4662
1,18
0,92
0,87
0,85
1,15
1,33
1,58
1,67
924
1530
1555
1654
1174
1209
1334
1132
0,64
0,66
0,53
0,49
0,34
0,32
0,35
0,41
Export EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993**
6808
8648
8412
10079
10522
15213
18875
15914
3,53
2,63
2,58
2,73
2,84
3,99
4,79
5,27
681
1378
1300
1323
818
895
977
777
0,35
0,42
0,40
0,36
0,22
0,24
0,25
0,26
1126
1730
1969
2142
2343
3428
5628
4582
0,58
0,53
0,60
0,58
0,63
0,90
1,43
1,52
1424
2254
2123
2673
2624
3136
3745
3173
0,74
0,69
0,65
0,72
0,71
0,82
0,95
1,05
2206
2324
2460
3299
3717
6663
6967
6051
1,14
0,71
0,75
0,89
1,00
1,75
1,77
2,00
1371
963
559
642
1021
1091
1557
1332
0,71
0,29
0,17
0,17
0,28
0,29
0,40
0,44
Eurostat and European Commission Services
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 63).
* January--September
** January--September
Table 7
Do the countries of Central and Eastern Europe fulfil the criteria
for membership of the EU as set out in Maastricht?
Criteria
Bulgari
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Slovakia
Complete convertibility
Strong Central Bank
Low inflation
Low public debt
Low budget deficit
Low interest rate
Convertible currency
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
National sources; OECD -- estimates and projections, Qvigstad, 1992;
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 39).
The fourth problem is the integration of the technology of the Fourth
Civilisation and the reconstruction of their own industries. The opening-up
of the markets of the Eastern European countries and the invasion of
competitors from all four corners of the world has created a danger that
some of the more progressive sectors of the economy will collapse. In
certain countries, Bulgaria for example, there is evidence of a process of
detechnologisation or the reduction of high-technology production in
comparison with the 1980's. The high level of outdated and worn-out
industrial machinery in Slovakia and Bulgaria has delayed progress. This
criterion is proof of how important it is to have a correct policy for
foreign investment and skilfully to combine the pre--1989 achievements with
world markets and technological structures.
The fifth problem is the development of a market infrastructure
adequate for the New Civilisation. To this extent the countries of the
Visegrad group and Slovenia are undoubtedly in a position of advantage in
comparison with the other former socialist countries. There is no doubt that
after the fall of the Berlin Wall the Eastern European peoples began a
process of rapprochement and integration with the world economy. The
universal processes of globalisation and the spirit of the Fourth
Civilisation have not left the post-communist countries untouched. The great
choice with which they were faced between 1989 and 1990 was totalitarianism
or democracy and a market economy. The great choice between 1993-6 and the
end of the century will be primitive capitalism or new civilisation.
An analysis of the economic and political situation shows that the
former members of COMECON are no longer an homogenous regional group. This
is due not only to the collapse of the common Eastern European market but
also to the different policies which the different governments have been
pursuing. In the mid-1990's the division between Central and Eastern Europe
was an artificially imposed concept. Now, however, it seems more realistic.
The Central European countries, sometimes referred to as the Visegrad Group
and Slovenia, are integrating significantly more rapidly than the remaining
countries and economically are becoming quite distinct. The second group has
a slightly different fate - the three small former Baltic republics of the
USSR who are seeking a channel into Europe by means of developing closer
ties with the Scandinavian countries, Germany and the U.K. Finally, there is
the third group of the Balkan states - Bulgaria, Rumania, Yugoslavia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia where internal disputes and conflicts have
delayed their development significantly. The division of the former members
of COMECON into separate regional groups could lead to delays in their
integration the European Union and increase in the internal disputes.
After the post-communist countries, Russia and China are of particular
significance. With their size and resources they have an independent and
significant geo-political role. In Russia the problems of transition are
many time more complex than those of the smaller countries of Central and
Eastern Europe. Political stability, the expansion of the market
infrastructure and the redistribution of ownership are, in my opinion, the
strategic problems of this great power. It is very likely that as we
approach the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation Russia will for a long
time remain in the orbit of state, corporative capitalism. Arguments in
support of this are the concentration of privatised giant state industry in
the hands of a very small group of the population and the close connections
between this group and the state bureaucracy. China without any doubt will
increase its role in the world which in its turn will increase its political
stability and the continued awesome development of its massive economy. A
open question for China will be the choice between a single party system and
political pluralism with the preservation of the stability and integrity of
the country.
As can be seen, the post-communist countries are divided not by
criteria of democracy-communism but by types of democracy and their
closeness to the Fourth Civilisation. Some of them will become integrated
quite quickly into the directions of progress, others will turn back to the
era of corporate, semi-state capitalism. There is no doubt that the
transition will be complex and drawn-out and will take place in stages and
with the deepening differentiation between the Eastern European countries.
The direction of this transition in the long-run will lead to integration
with the economic and political systems of the most developed countries in
the world.
4. THE APPROACH AND THE END OF THE "THIRD WORLD"
Integration leads either to imperialist violence or the rapprochement
of social systems and the improved conditions of life.
U
ntil the end of the 1980's politicians and academics divided the world
into three parts: capitalist, socialist and the Third World - the world of
the economically backwards countries. Ideologues on the two sides of the
Berlin Wall divided the Third World into those countries with capitalist
systems and those with socialist orientation. Today, this "structure" has
entirely lost any meaning. The socialist world has evaporated and capitalism
has become transformed into something else. The "Third World" has changed
and no longer represents a community of countries with similar
charasteristics.
Until 6 or 7 years ago the Third World was defined as something
unspecific which would eventually merge with the first or the second. Today,
however, one has to use different criteria in evaluating any particular
country. In my opinion these criteria are based on the outlines of the new,
Fourth Civilisation, from those processes and phenomena which symbolise the
leading trends of modern progress. I would place the accent on three of them
in particular: 1. the share of high-technology production and activities
within the GDP; 2. the structure of ownership and social groups;3. the level
of socialisation of ownership and the integration of the market;4. the
openness of countries and the stability of their national manufacturing and
culture; 5. the GDP per head of population.
By using these criteria quantitively and qualitively we can propose
another global structure to the countries of the world. The first group is
of those countries which are symbols of human progress and which are in
transition from the Third Civilisation and to a large extent are the basis
for the Fourth Civilisation. For them the advent of the new civilisation is
already irreversible. I would include here the members of the European group
with the exception of Greece and Portugal, the USA and Canada, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Iceland, Malta and
a number of other states. The second group is of those countries which on
the basis of certain factors are on the edge of the Fourth Civilisation or
remain within the traditions of the 20th century. They are on the threshold
of the new civilisation but are essentially at a different level of progress
from those countries within the first group. I could include here the new
Asian Dragons - Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea,
Taiwan as well as countries like Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Costa Rica,
Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. The third group would include such countries
which have an industrial or semi-industrial structure and state capitalist
or some form of oligarchical or monarchist social structure.: Russia, China,
Rumania, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the
UAE, Pakistan, the majority of Latin American countries, Tunisia, Egypt,
Morocco, the Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico and a number of
others. These countries have not yet achieved political stability and
economic balance. The fourth and last group includes countries whose
manufacturing and social relations are partially within the third and
partially within earlier structures of civlisation. These are the majority
of the African, some Asian nations and a number of countries of the Near
East. These countries are sometimes referred to as the "forgotten" nations
and need special help and programmes to link them to the rest of the world
and to overcome problems of poverty and illness.
Is it possible to speak of a common transition of civilisation when no
more than one fifth of the world's population lives in conditions similar to
those which we refer to as the transition to the Fourth Civilisation and
more than one third in conditions typical of the transition from the Second
to the Third? The basis for a positive answer to this question is
integration, the speed at which countries are coming together in the
conditions of globalisation. As a consequence of the openness of the large
majority of countries and the expansion of the world market the transfer of
new technologies and the management model is much easier and faster than at
any other time in the history of mankind.
The example with the countries of South East Asia shows that given a
suitable political climate countries can penetrate world markets and achieve
significant results. The rate of development in South Korea over the past 30
years has allowed it to overtake many of the Eastern European countries
which in the first half of the 1960's were significantly more
advanced.[48] The example of the Asian Dragons will be followed
by a number of individual states in Northern Africa and the Near East. Thus
we can speak of the collapse and the restructuring of the countries of the
"Third World". The Eastern Europeans have great potential. Other countries
such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa also have strong
possibilities. They and a dozen or so smaller countries will gradually begin
to approach the highly developed countries - the leading figures in the new
civilisation.
For more than half a century, many of the leaders of the Third World
have been looking for their own direction in the struggle to combat poverty
and make progress. Ghandi and Neru in India, Mao and Dun Saopin in China,
Castro in Cuba, Sengor, Tutu and Kenyatta in Africa have conducted their own
experiments with varying degrees of success. The main question for all the
poorly developed nations is not to demonstrate their uniqueness but to
become incorporated into the trends of progress and the post-industrialised
Fourth Civilisation. The fear that foreign investments, progress in the West
and the open commodity and financial markets will undermine national pride
and specific cultural features is not always justified. Such dependence
exists only in the most corrupt regimes and where an imperialistic type of
dependence has been allowed to develop.
Technological and social progress even in the conditions of the open
market does not inevitably lead to the death of national cultures and
identity. In fact the opposite is often the case. The experience of China,
South Korea and Singapore has shown that only against the background of a
well developed economy can national and ethnic culture be preserved for the
future.
In the global world national identity and specific cultural features
will manifest themselves only at a certain level of economic development
when poverty and backwardness has been overcome. Nevertheless it will be
difficult for the dreams of the apostles of Black Africa or Che Guevara to
come true. The closed nature of the societies, corrupt regimes, the lack of
law and order and ethnic calm will continue to maintain the countries of the
"Third World" in the orbit of the past.
When I refute the division of the countries of the world into three
groups within the bi-polar model of the world, I, naturally, realise how
important it is to adopt a clear position in support of an alternative for
future development. The current lack of order and chaos has made many
proponents of change wait to see what direction change will take. My
understanding of this question is that for the next few years we shall live
in a multi-sector world with an enormous diversity of economic and social
conditions with enormous differences in economic levels. When I speak of the
multiplicity of sectors, I mean a multiplicity of political and economic
forms, political systems and specific governmental decisions.
At the same time I can see no other prospect for development apart from
growing integration and the gradual reduction of differences conditioned by
the integration of world financial markets. To this extent the multiplicity
of sectors is a transitional state despite the relative stability of the
world. The differences inherent in the form of ownership and political
systems will gradually disappear. On the other hand economic advances will
allow for the protection of the cultural diversity of the world and
spiritual identity.
5. BALANCED DEVELOPMENT
Post-capitalism and post-communism are stages inthe process of the
collapse of the Third Civilisation. The major question is what will replace
it? I believe that it will replaced by the societies of the Fourth
Civilisation -- societies of balanced development.
R
epresentatives of individual historical eras are bound to the limits of
their own time and are unable to see the world as a whole. All the major
ideological doctrines of the last few centuries have been linked to the need
for the resolution of group, regional or class contradictions. Global
thought was and continues to have little attraction for philosophers and
politicians. Even in the 20th century when world globalisation is gradually
on the increase, ideological and political doctrines have developed in
accordance with the conditions in one or a group of countries and specific
ideological models have imposed themselves through force.
Marxism-Leninism claimed to be a teaching for the whole of humanity.
However, despite Marx's attempt to evaluate the Asian methods of production
his doctrine did not take into account the cultural and historical
development of China and India. The imposition of Marxist or western
bourgeois models upon completely different cultural and historical roots was
a manifestation of philosophical and ideological monopolism. The 20th has
century provided us with many forms of Marxism and Liberalism but with the
increase in democracy more local cultural features have begun to dominate
over ideologies.
Today, while the Third Civilisation is in a process of disintegration
many things have not yet changed. The global approach has made its mark and
is no longer considered absurd or abstract challenge. The UN has taken on
more responsibility and increased its role in the world. A number of new
formations involved in global issues have arisen. One major result of such
processes was the summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 at which
politicians from all over the world gathered in the name of the survival of
humanity. However, up to now these efforts have not yet produced any serious
results. Despite the conflicts evident in the world, despite the complete
irrationality of manufacturing structures, despite the continuing
destruction of forests and cultivable land, humanity continues to exist in
the condition of nationalist thinking or class, social and other types of
doctrines.
While global reseach is mainly directed towards environmental and
philosophical problems, there are still those who aspire to defend one
system, one model or one culture. In the risk of repeating myself, I
consider such attempts absurd. Neither socialism, nor capitalism, not the
political models of the countries of the Third World can serve today as
universal models for life on earth. There is little doubt that globalisation
and global culture will continue to penetrate the common principles and
standards of life. However, this process will take place through
manifestations of local culture, as well as specific national, regional and
ethnic features.
The modern world will no longer accept unified "military" models of
development. The dialectics of globalisation and localisation, the advent of
the new civilisation can offer a new model. If it is democratic and not
imperialistic as in the 20th century. There is no longer any room for
universal doctrines in the new era. Universal principles and legal standards
-- yes, universal ideologies and models -- no. "Yes" because of the
inevitable integration and mutual dependence of countries, "No" because of
the resolute and growing diversity of human life.
The 20th century was a century of imperialism and forced globalisation.
The 21st century will be a century of intermixing and synthesis of different
cultures and ideas. I am convinced that the time has come to pose the
question of the type and the direction of general world development and of
the main principles and trends of the Fourth Civilisation. In this way the
danger of global chaos and the resolution of global contradictions through
myriad local wars, tension and never-ending disputes may be avoided.
At the end of the 20th century, humanity has reached a stage in its
development wherein no single nation can impose itself on others and no
single country can exist in isolation from the others. This is the effect of
globalisation and the constant increase in mutual dependence while on the
other hand there is a marked growth in the role of local cultures. After the
fall of the Berlin Wall three quarters of the population of the world now
live in conditions of free economic initiative and more than 90% of the
countries of the world have multi-party democracies. Human rights, the free
movement of information and people are becoming more and more an integral
part of life. Communism, fascism, Moaism and Polpotism have collapsed.
Liberal capitalism is being gradually eroded by the growth in new
technology, the growing role of small and medium business and anti-trust
legislation. Socialism as it was once known by so many nations has been
consigned to the past.
What then will be the typical features of global development n the 21st
century? Over the past few years many of the industrial nations of the world
have begun to speak of "sustainable development". This was initially an
environmental concept, a combination of the models of the developed Western
societies and the desire to preserve life on Earth. A number of writers have
attempted to use this concept to make more comprehensive evaluations of
future economic growth, types of manufacturing and the challenges facing
future generations.[49]
However, the concept of "sustainable development" is still unclear and
unnecessarily generalised. It is useful in that it links many varied
national models to the common problems of humanity. Its inadequacy is that
it does not analyse such fundamental questions such as global political and
economic structures, the re-distribution of ownership and authority and
control over the media etc.. However, the concept of sustainable development
does not provide an answer to the major question -- what comes after
post-capitalism and post-communism? What will be the result of their fusion?
I would link the answer to this question with the concept of balanced
development. From a micro-economic and regional point of view it is not new.
The new aspect which I have added is to link it with the global transition
to the new, Fourth Civilisation.
The first general theory of economic balance was created by L.Walras
and V.Pareto, (the Losanne school of political economy). Their aim was to
create abstract mathematical models which provided a ratio between supply
and demand. In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th A.Kurno,
W.Jevans and A.Marshall made significant contributions to the formation of
the classical views of market balance. During the second half of the 20th
century, G.Hicks and P.Samuelson formed a "political synthesis" based on the
studies by the great Swiss economists nd the classic writers on bourgeois
political economy. The Hicks-Allan model is perhaps the best expression of
market balance.[50] It combines the process of the maximum use
for each consumer within the limitations of his income and the maximum
profit for each entrepreneur within the limitations of his produce to
produce a balance between supply and demand.
L.Walras come to some particularly valuable conclusions on the role of
the state in the establishment of balance and his advocacy of the principle,
"balance of opportunity against imbalance of the the factual
situation"[51]. Walras considered the liberal "Laissez Faire"
doctrine as a pure illusion and included the regulating role of the state in
his balanced system. He supports the cooperative movement and is the only
one of many like-minded thinkers to tackle the question of ownership. To be
unaware of the work of L.Walras is to be unaware of one of the most
brilliant writers on economic and political science.
The balanced economic theory of the Lauzanne school and to a lesser
extent the school of the neo-classicists is an initial pre-condition for
what I refer to as balanced development. At a theoretical and methodological
level a number of Marx's conclusions on ownership and the state are also
useful.[52] This can also be said of the ideas of "cooperative
socialism". In contrast to L.Walras, however, I do not see balance as an
ineluctable state or a description of the market but as part of the general
reforms of civilisation. The difference is that I approach balance not from
the point of view of the conditionally limited market but from a global
point of view. In my opinion, balance is not an ideal model but a trend.
There is no eternal balance, there is politics and specific historical
conditions within which it can be achieved. Moreover, I believe that balance
is not only an economic category but a tangential point for economic,
political and cultural processes.
The great modern significance of balanced development comes from the
bankruptcy of "communist nationalisation" and the inadequacy of liberal
doctrines. During the entire period of the 20th century these two concepts
did not contribute either balance of harmony. In fact the opposite -- they
caused innumberable contradictions and hundreds of wars. Pure liberalism
divided the world into the rich and the poor and will clearly continue to do
so as long as it is predominant in the world. Communism, in its very first
stage, brought about the total nationalisation of life and killed freedom
and civil societies. The idea of balanced development is an expression of
the new theoretical synthesis and the link between it and the globalisation
of the world.
From a national domestic point of view balanced development is a trend,
as well as a supporting policy, towards the redistribution of ownership
amongst the largest possible number of citizens and the gradual limitation
of the monopolistic role of families and individuals. Balanced development
is not a revolutionary but a reformist concept -- an expression of the
post-capitalist and post-communist development of the world. To this extent
it is a generalised expression not only of the division and redistribution
of ownership but also its socialisation. Integration and mutual dependence
within the manufacturing processes and financial operations, the transition
from a chaotic to an organised and computerised market presuppose the
interweaving of interests of the traditional and the new social groups and
strata. The gradual, logical and deliberate balancing of the market provides
above all for general economic balance. It is here that the Hicks-Allen
equation needs significant enhancement to take into account the increased
consumption of services and the role of new art forms in the industrialised
states.
At high levels of economic balance the objective role of the state in
the redistribution of ownership is reduced and vice versa. In a balanced
society the state fulfils a supportive and regulative role up to the moment
of the establishment of self-regulation and the horizontal balance of the
system. Neither the state, nor the civil society has permanent limits but
gradually during the processes of its maturation society overwhelms the
state, not the other way around. Of course, this does not mean that
centralised regulation will die or that the nation state will disappear
tomorrow.
Balanced development presupposes "balanced" human rights for all. The
basic pre-condition for the consolidation of balance is the provision of the
individual rights of citizens, their freedom to choose, to associate and to
be protected from the hindrances of bureaucracy. For this reason the corner
stones of democracy -- the freedom of speech and the press, the free
movement of people, goods and capital are the fundamental basis for balanced
development. This also requires the involvement of the state in the economy
and other areas on the principle of minimal sufficiency, as a guarantor of
civil rights and a factor in the formation of a dynamic social environment.
In contrast to liberalism, however, balanced development is possible only
with the redistribution of ownership amongst the growing part of the
population and its socialisation and integration. There are clear
differences between balanced development and the traditional (until the
1970's) concepts of social democracy. While the foundations of social
democracy defined a priori the role of the state within society and
presupposes nationalisation and greater or lesser levels of state control,
balanced development presupposes the minimalisation of the role of the state
with simultaneous horizontal socialisation. This excludes monopolism by a
small group of the extremely rich and the state bureaucracy. Only in this
context can there be any "balance" of difference social groups or relative
"balance of opportunity" (L.Walras) and social justice.
Balanced development presupposes the association of different ethnic
groups and cultures within the framework of the national state and the
global world. In general this concept is an expression of the expansion of
the relations within a civil society and the current notion of human rights.
Balanced development is inseparable from the legislative resolution of a
series of social rights (life, health, work, education, maternity, pensions
etc..) not only as the responsibility of the executive authorities but as
the responsibility of civil society. This takes the form of social funds,
companies, charitable organisations etc. which are independent of the state.
This also leads to the need for the protection of the private life of the
individual. There can be no balanced development if the social security of
citizens is not guaranteed in a new way. This concerns the protection of the
family, women and children, pregnancy and maternity, personal, genetic,
ethnic and behavioural information.
Balanced development presupposes the existence of any specific feature
which does not negate any another, the combination and mutual harmony of all
the features of mankind and social and ethnic groups. The political regimes
and the cultures of the Third Civilisation imposed their models and cultures
through violence. The Fourth Civilisation and its main features -- balanced
development means the rejection of such practices. Most significantly, this
doctrine could become a common reality only if applied globally. It is
already clear that any further increase in the gap of imbalance between
indivual nations stimulates chaos in the world and will cause even greater
damage within the most developed countries. I recently heard someone say in
a small Bulgarian town, "How can I live peacefully, when there is poverty
all around me and rising crime?" These were the words of a well-off man who
was aware of the simple economic truth that if you are richer than others,
you become the object of their dissatisfaction. This is something which will
have to be understood in the industrialised western countries. Otherwise,
sooner or later they will be obliged to isolate themselves and to experience
the hatred of the poor.
The outcome is clear: gradually and inexorably, in accordance with the
norms of the global world, economic levels will balance out. In other words,
balanced development is only possible and necessary in the international
aspect, both as a consequence of and a precondition for the global market.
This requires changes in the international economic order and global
regulation which I will mention at a later stage. Balanced development
presupposes the creation of an environment for intermixing, cohabitation and
development within the universal market and legislative frameworks of
different cultures. Instead of cultural imperialism there will be a
muliticultural society, instead of enmity between countries with different
political and economic regimes, there will be rapprochement and a reduction
of the multiplicity of economic sectors. There will also be an new trend in
geo-politics: instead of imperialism and the domination of one or a group of
states there will be a gradual process of policentrism.
In the next chapters I will attempt to prove that the trends emerging
at the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation and its main outlining feature
-- balanced development -- are irreversible. At the same time I realise the
strength of the inertia inherited from the past and the strength of other
factors which want to delay global change. When I set out my views on
balanced development before a mixed Bulgarian political auditorium I
received two profoundly different reactions. The representatives of the
former communist party said, "You've gone too far to the right." The other
half of the auditorium occupied by members of the anti-communist groups
commented, "This is left-wing babble".
In reality balanced development is neither one nor the other. It is not
me who has gone to the right or to the left but time and human progress
which have gone forward.
Chapter Seven
OBSTRUCTIONS
1. THE DEFENDERS OF THE THIRD CIVILISATION
During the entire period of the 20th century, the representatives of
different classes, nations and blocs have battled with each other. They
created the industry of confrontation and the belief in its eternity. Today
these same people are the defenders of the Third Civilisation.
E
very historical phenomenon has its own driving forces as well as its
own obstacles. The advent of any phenomenon on the historical scene does not
come as an overnight victory -- this is the illusion of revolutionaries --
but as the result of the gradual propulsion of the driving forces against
the obstacles which always exist to the new. This is also true for the
Fourth Civilisation. The Fourth Civilisation could be accelerated or
hindered by a series of political, economic and moral factors. Although we
are living through the last years of the Third Civilisation, it still has
many adherents. The inertia of the past is alive and its advocates
constantly refer back to the old formulae, "How good it used to be in the
past." I once discussed this issue with one of the initiators of the process
of perestroika in the USSR, A.Yakovliev.[53] I asked him what was
the reason for the conservatism of the older population in Eastern Europe.
He joked in response, "Well, their wives were younger then!"
There is perhaps something a element of truth in this joke.
Conservatives in principle support the regimes and systems for which they
have struggled all their lives. They always tend to over-dramatise the
difficulties of the transition and consider any changes a deviation from the
true belief. Moreover, conservatives are not only divided according to age
or to party membership. There are pensioners who support the coming of the
new and young conservatives with opinions set in concrete. In Eastern Europe
the conservatives are concentrated mainly amongst the former communists, the
former security forces but also amongst many members of the old bourgeois
class who are involved in the struggle for political revenge and the
re-establishment of the political status quo from the time before the Second
World War. In the West the defenders of the old civilisation recognise only
the collapse of communism as a symbol of change and their own thoughts do
not go beyond their own privileges and global domination.
This is an historical paradox. The defenders of the Third Civilisation
are not divided into countries and ideologies. They are all enamoured to a
greater or lesser extent of the structures of the bi-polar model and the
cold war. Masses of anticommunists and anticapitalists, Liberals and
Marxists, capitalists and party bureaucrats, generals and spies piously
believe in their correctness and their way of life. Of course, it would be
improper to reject their past, or the struggles they waged, not the fact
that each one of them in his own way may have been an honourable defender of
his native land. However, this is not the most important element. The most
signicant thing is that they are defending models and attitudes which have
crippled the 20th century and transformed it into the most bloody century in
the history of mankind.
The 20th century will be the last century of belligerent nationalism,
imperialism and the domination of one nation over another. However, albeit
with weakened authority, those political forces who advocated such phenomena
have not disappeared. There are still insufficient guarantees that
globalisation will not give rise to imperialism or that the reaction to this
will not provide more opportunities to nationalism and autarchy. While
thought and ideological criteria remain within the framework of egoistical
national iterests, while global awareness is still undeveloped, the
conflicts of the passing century are still possible.
The question is whether we are for or against the structures of the old
civilisation -- for or against the emerging structures of the new time.
Those who dream of the renewed domination of one nation over another, of
imbalanced international economic conditions, of party and nomenclature
leaders, of media monopolism, of the eternalisation of differences in living
standards are on one side of the barricade. Yesterday the party bureaucrats
and the capitalists were opponents. Today they might even become allies in
the struggle for survival and the survival of the structures of the Third
Civilisation. Still prisoners to their old ideologies and international
confrontations they maintain those ideas and structures which could still
return us to the time of the Cold War or grant us a period of Cold Peace.
Fighting with each other, the proponents of the Third Civilisation can only
renew fears, thoughts and activities which leave us in the grips of the
past.
In Spain there is a monument to the memory of both the supporters of
Franco and the Republicans. In one and the same place, under one and the
same cross are gathered the honour and the debt, the errors and mistakes,
the greatness and the perdition of people who killed one another. The names
of the killers are illumiated by those of the victims, whatever side they
may have fought for, whatever side of the barrier they may have belonged to.
In Spain the reconciliation of history is already a fact. In Bulgaria, the
former Yugoslavia and partially in Poland there are still many people who
believed that Gorbachev was a CIA agent while in the USA there are those who
consider Clinton an American communist.
The sooner such thinking disappears, the sooner we shall become awards
of the problems and the greatness of the new civilisation. In order to
understand the new, we must forget the old language, the old categories of
division, the old enmities and prejudices. The Cold War is over but the Cold
Peace and mistrust could unknowingly lead us back to it. Unfortunately this
is not all. The life of the Third Civilisation could be prolonged via the
maintainance of the economic and political structures which were typical of
the 20th century. In most general terms, these structures can be united into
two mutually conditional phenomena, which albeit in different forms have
supported the current world conflicts. These are imperialism and nationalism
and their modern manifestations. As paradoxical as it might seem, these two
satellites of the 20th century are supported by one common culture -- that
of violence and confrontation. The alternative to violence and confrontation
is tolerance -- the recognition of differences, respect for the problems of
others, responsibility to help those who are worse off. Perhaps, it is
indeed tolerance as an alternative to violence which is the most important
feature of the political culture of the Fourth Civilisation.
2. THE GREAT THREAT -- MEDIA IMPERIALISM
With the passing of the Third Civilisation it is also possible that the
imperialist dependencies between nations will disappear. However if the
abstract liberal trends of the past continue to develop this may lead to new
forms of imperialist domination -- less overt but with equally dangerous
consequences.
T
he first manifestations of the global world were inseparably linked
with the ambitions of empire and the growing power of the most developed
countries of the time. The colonial system, international trusts and
cartels, the redistribution of the world into zones of influence and two
world wars was an expression of imperialist domination. The division of the
world into two systems and the cold war was also a form of international
imperialism.
The main slogan used by Lenin, Stalin and their followers was the
"struggle against imperialism". They, however, created a system closely
based on imperial allegiance. If Gorbachev with his power had begun a
process of the gradual reconstruction of Eastern Europe and the world,
imperialism could have been replaced by the agreed establishment of a new
world economic, informational and legislative order. I am convinced that
such a policy would have found support amongst the majority of the political
and intellectual circles in the West.
Gorbachev's failure was to allow the Eastern European regimes to
collapse without any dignity opening the way for the globalisation of the