longer believes that disarmament is irreversible.
In the context of the bi-polar model the world was governed by two
super powers and a group of nations dependent on them. Today the level of
direct government has sharply declined. After the collapse of the USSR a
number of new pretenders to world leadership have appeared and before our
very eyes the roles and relations of former allies have changed radically.
Politics is no longer two-dimensional but an equation with hundreds of
unknowns. A clear example of the ontradictions between the great powers can
be seen in the war in the former Yugoslavia. The vested interests of certain
states, in assisting various leaders and arming different armies demonstrate
that the old political tradition, the tradition of the bi-polar world has
long since passed away.
Or let us take Europe. The unification of the two Germanies did not
only impose a series of new responsibilities on West Germany but has created
complex problems for pan-European processes. Germany transferred part of the
burden of unification on to its European partners via the mechanisms of
international financial relations. The integration of the two German states
has changed the structure of Europe and the relations of the states within
it. The granting ofassociate membership status to the Eastern European
countries within the structures of the EU seemed in 1989-1991 a relatively
easy task but was soon delayed almost indefinitely. This was to a certain
extent because of the unwillingness of Russia to allow itself to be
encircled by a new "iron" or other type of curtain. The place and role of
Russia itself in the global community are still unclear.
In the global aspect the collapse of the Eastern European regimes has
had even greater consequences. The collapse of the Soviet Union and its
economic potential to all intents and purposes removed one of the two main
super powers from the geo-political map. Only the USA remains. A number of
years have passed and there are already voices which proclaim that the super
powers are no longer necessary. France has offered to extend its nuclear
umbrella over Germany. Germany and Japan have demonstrated their desires to
become permanent members of the Security Council.Russia has officially
requested membership of the group of the most developed nations.
The collapse of the Eastern European economic and political structures
has opened up a hole in world economic relations with consequences for the
world economic order. A not insignificant number of investments have flowed
into Eastern Europe. West Germany's great commitments to its new Eastern
provinces have resulted in a deterioration in the condition of the European
exchange rate system. Without the burdens of such problems, Japan and a
number of other countries in the Far East have continued to develop their
potential and to exert more and more influence on the world economic
processes. China has demonstrated high levels of growth and a flourishing
economy. The changes in South Africa and the forthcoming transition in Hong
Kong have encouraged high levels of investment and movement of funds.
In 1992 and 1993 while delivering lectures in Switzerland and the USA I
emphasised on several occasions that geo-political turbulence will affect
the world financial systems. Even today few people really believe in this
although the facts are there for all to see. In the winter and spring of
1995 the American dollar began to tumble against the Japanese yen. The world
financial markets became very worried and the most prominent financial
experts explained it away with the American budget deficit, the crisis of
the Mexican peso or ambitions to increase American export. What really
happened demonstrates the reduced abilities of governments and central banks
to exercise effective control over international economic relations. Certain
"invisible" private forces are already in control of the world economy and
are rarely affected by governmental influence.
Moreover, the first symptoms of uncotrollability appeared directly
after the collapse of the Brenton Woods system at the beginning of the
1970's when in March 1973 Richard Nixon allowed the dollar to float. For
almost a quarter of a century the dollar has been trying to find its levels
via floating exchange rates and now we are on the eve of a new governmental
vacuum. The reason for this is the constant increase in the role of the
private banks and unidentified financial funds in global economics, the
growth in the role of centrifugal effects in the world financial systems. In
the spring of 1995 the director of the International Monetary Fund,
M.Cammedessu, declared that in the near future and with its present
structures the IMF would not be able to continue to fulfil its functions.
"We are living in a dangerous world" were the words of Cammedessu. His
trepidations were emphasised by the constant growth in unregulated funds of
money as well as by the growing mountain of state and private debts etc..
Neither the present international financial system nor the entire world
economic and political order will be able to prevent any possible crises.
The chaos has affected the spiritual relations, thinking and value
systems of people. The world communist movement underwent a catastrophe with
negative repercussion for a number of other socialist and social democratic
movements. On the other hand, the unpreparedness of the West to act quickly
and the clear inadequacy of liberal doctrines to stop the crisis showed that
they are unable to offer a miracle treatment. Many politicians in attempts
to avoid divergence between reality and ideas have stated that it is no
longer political programmes or ideologies which are important but pragmatic
action. As in other similar historical transitional periods a large number
of people are confused and prefer to take refuge in local pragmatism and
finding solutions only to current problems. The lack of a common view about
how one should approach the new situation has opened the door to
nationalism, ethnic ambitions and xenophobia. A significant number of world
politicians have been compelled to turn their attention to current problem
solving and to ignore global and regional problems. It is becoming more and
more evident that there is a need for a global analysis on what is taking
place, its consequences and a search for a solution to the chaos which is
ensuing. Today there is no doctrine or common theory about the future of the
world, or how to solve our common problems: the global economic order, the
environment, poverty, religious tolerance, stabilisation of growth etc..
This is one of the reasons why nationalism often comes to the fore in the
search for solutions to global problems.
The attitudes of the younger generations is a very important indication
of the spiritual crisis. I often speak to my colleagues who are lecturers in
various institutions of higher education in the industrialised countries of
the world. In the less developed countries the situation is less clear. The
young people in these countries want to achieve the material prosperity of
the richest nations which is in itself strong motivation. In the USA, Japan,
France, Great Britain, Canada and Germany, however, for quite a long time
now, students and young people have no overall idea about their future. The
ambition of achieving a certain level of material prosperity, a large bank
account, one's own business, to travel abroad and so on, are largely
manifestations of tradition rather than anything else.
But what does this mean? Healthy interests and the stability of the
system? Or, rather, a spiritual crisis in a vacuum expressed by the new
generations in the most developed countries drowning in luxury and spiritual
consumerism.
World history has witnessed other periods of chaos and disorder of
global structures: some longer some shorter. The problem is that the changes
which are taking place today are not as the result of wars in which the
victor imposes his will with force. The globalisation of the world has led
to a universal crisis of the current world order. This is a crisis of the
entire world system, of national and regional thinking and consequently
everything else which typifies the Third Civilisation. Within global
relations there is a new spiritual, economic and political vacuum. If these
vacuums are not filled with adequate changes to world structures, there may
be indescribable consequences. Why has there been such an explosion of
religious sects in recent years? Why has terrorism become a global problem
and is more and more uncompromising and violent in its forms? Why are people
becoming more alienated from politics? Why has fundamentalism spread into
new territories? Why has international crime grown so much?
The reason is that the current world order is not adequate to respond
to the new realities. NATO and the USA alone are not capable of resolving
world conflicts. This may even lead to a reaction from Russia or China and
new divisions within the world. The UN does not have the strength to stop
conflicts. It is becoming apparent that many elements of the current world
system are outdated and its major mechanisms have to be changed and
repaired.
The manifold lack of clarity in international political and economic
relations are an expression of an inadequately low level of agreement
between countries and the expectation that everything will resolve itself.
The disorder is on such a large scale that it requires common action on the
basis of universally accepted principles. Of course, the world today is much
more integrated. This should not be seen so much as an advantage but as a
condition for overcoming the chaos more rapidly and for allowing integration
to develop. This will also require some form of world coordination, of
mutually acceptable decisions and the growth in the role of organisations
such as the UN. It would, however, be imprudent to suppose that the problems
with which we are faced will be resolved quickly and conclusively. This will
require a relatively longer period. The new world order will develop
gradually, based on mutually agreeable action .This conclusion is based on
the fact that the real world powers are still acting from their position as
nation states and their national responsibilities and will only change the
international rules of the game within that context. This is logical but it
also carries a risk. Given a variety of events and varying conditions any
one country with a more dominant global role by changing its internal order
runs the risk of causing a universal cataclysm.
Globalisation and its progeny - the global world, will lead to a crisis
not only of traditional international relations but also of the political
systems of national societies. The interests of more and more people stretch
beyond the bounds of a single state and depend less and less on the
decisions of a single government. Everywhere in the developed world there is
a decline in trust for traditional political systems and a need for new
decisions. Thus:
1. The lack of a mechanism for reliable international, economic and
political regulations;
2. The contradiction between the unlimited global power of world
corporations and the limited power of governmental decisions;
3. The reactions of 2.5-3 billion poor people in the unification of
humanity into a single mutually dependent whole;
4. The danger of new nationalism and the restoration the division of
the world into blocs;
5. The possibility of the bi-polar model being exchanged for a
mono-centric world structure and the domination of one or a group of rich
states;
6. The destruction of small cultures and the dilution of national
traditions and values;
7. The limitation of the private life of the individual and his
transformation into a "manipulated animal" by the new media;
8. The crisis of traditional political systems;
9. Terrorism and international crime;
All this factors are expressions of the disorder and danger of chaos -
an expression of the crisis of the borders between the two epochs.
2. GEOPOLITICAL COLLAPSE
One of the most important consequences of the collapse of the Eastern
European
totalitarian regimes was the change in geo-political structures. The
bi-polar
world seems to have collapsed irreversibly.
T
he "modern" age which has occupied the last five centuries in the
development of humanity has been a time of the creation and consolidation of
nation states, of the formation of alliances and opposing political blocs.
After the collapse of the Berlin wall a series of global processes began
which were to lead to gradual but irreversible changes in the world
political order. Directly after the fall of the"totalitarian regimes in
Eastern Europe the majority of political commentators and researchers
considered that the problem would be limited to the collapse of the USSR and
a number of smaller Eastern European states and thereafter their inclusion
in the structures of the developed nations of NATO and the EU. Such
one-sided views continue to predominate today, despite the fact that most
people are aware of their inadequacies. The problem is that after the
explosion in Eastern Europe a slow but unstoppable process of universal
geopolitical change began. I refer to this process as "geo-political
collapse", since it affected the political structures typical of the entire
twentieth century and in a broader context, the entire Third Civilisation.
What is clear is that the map of Europe is being reshaped. However, let
us look at the rest of the world. Despite the strong influence of Russia in
Central Asia there is a growing conflict of interests between a number of
Islamic states and China. The unification of Germany has changed the
proportionality of power in central Europe. There is no need for detailed
forecasts in this area although there are certain clear trends emerging
which seem to herald the end of the old world order.
The first wave of the geo-political collapse clearly took place in
Eastern Europe and most significantly in the USSR. The second will be
connected with the increase in the political importance of Europe (above all
Germany) and Japan. he role of the USA, the only remaining super power, will
be to provide a balance with all the consequences which that entails. The
third wave will be a consequence of the increase in the economic and the
political importance of a number of smaller countries in South Eastern
Europe, Asia and Latin America.
At the beginning of the 1990's we were witnesses not only to the
collapse of the Eastern European political structures but also to the
potential of profound changes within the West. There is no doubt that the
borders of the European community will move towards the East and that the
role of Germany in this process will be extremely significant.
The consolidation of the European Union and the creation of a single
European currency which appears to have strong political
support[25] presuppose a number of changes in trans-Atlantic
cooperation. I do not believe that trans-Atlantic ties will weaken but I do
believe that the creation of a common European currency will bring about
many changes in their nature, scale and direction.
It is true that a large number of lesser developed states still do not
have the self-confidence and strength to undertake independent activities.
Even if this were to happen, such ideas would develop in isolation rather
than as a part of a logical process. For the moment the countries outside
the Group of 25 are strongly dependent on the most developed nations.
Amongst them, however, there are a number of nations with growing ambitions
for more economic and political influence. Which will be stronger?
Integration or an eruption of ambitions and the struggle for new influence?
The question is whether the struggle for free economic and political
relations will begin in Asia, Africa or Latin America? Will this not be
stronger than the processes of global integration?
In any event one thing is clear - the old world order created between
the 18th and 19th centuries by a group of advanced European states and the
two super powers which emerged in the 20th century is now a thing of the
past. The old geo-political world is collapsing before our eyes and not only
as a consequence of the collapse of the USSR. In the autumn of 1995 the
voters in Quebec very nearly voted for secession from Canada which could
have lead to the real collapse of the Canadian state. Almost daily,
politicians and civil servants in the European capital of Brussels reiterate
the view that the USA should no longer play the role of a super power. In
Paris the views are even more categorical. The state of chaos is due to the
fact that the world is undergoing transition. There are many processes and
situations within this transition as well as many unpredictable deviations.
3. ECONOMIC TURBULENCE
Colossal disproportions have accumulated within the financial systems
of the world. Until now they have not lead to any great crises because of
the regulatory role played by the world political order. However, after its
total collapse are we not bound to feel the cold embrace of instability and
chaos?
O
n the 1st of September 1995 the world news agencies reported an
emerging financial crisis in the most prosperous of post-war economies -
Japan. Thousands of investors withdrew their deposits from the Kisu Credit
Union in Osaka and the Hiogo bank in Kobe which were then closed to all
kinds of banking operations. Their clients wanted to withdraw over 3 billion
US dollars or almost 1/4 of the total deposits of the union. The
bankruptcies of a number of Japanese credit unions and the unprecedented
problems they caused for a number of large banks cast huge doubts about the
stability of the banking system in Japan. The reason for such shocks is the
huge amount of debt accumulated in the 1980's when stock exchange prices
were very high and suddenly fell as a result of the global recession.
The problem, however, is more complex. More and more people are
becoming aware of the fact that the debts accumulated by governments and
individual financial structures will not be repaid. The enormous debt of the
American government and the increased indebtedness of other developed
countries pose a question about the efficacy of the world financial system.
It is true that in contrast to the Great Depression of the 1939, the banks
and national governments now have much greater reserves and experience in
avoiding financial crises. However, it is also true that such colossal debts
are possible in the conditions of guaranteed political economic regulation
and a clear and stable political order. The trust in the major currencies is
based not only on their real condition but on their established monopoly of
the world markets.
It is not difficult to comprehend that if the geo-political
restructuring does take place then political and military factors will lose
their influence and the problem with debt will prove catastrophic. There is
a direct link between the changes in world political structures and
stability of the existing financial systems. Neither of them are adequate
for the conditions of the epoch which we are now entering.
Of course, the world economy will continue for a certain length of time
to develop positively. The reasons for this are the newly opened markets of
Eastern Europe, Russia and South East Asia in particular. Countries which
had until now been culturally and politically isolated are now attractive to
foreign investors. Care will have to be taken that this growth does not give
rise to further "economic turbulence". For reasons of cheap labour in the
East many manufacturers in Western Europe and America are turning towards
Asia. In 1995 this caused much unrest amongst the German trade unions and
was one of the main factors for concern voiced at the congress of German
Social Democrats in Manheim in autumn of the same year.
There is no doubt that with the democratic development of China and the
smaller dragons within South Eastern Asia and with the opening of the
Eastern European and Russian markets world economic structures will undergo
significant changes. I am almost convinced that many governmental and
private structures will not be able to resist the temptation and will answer
the primitive instincts of competition and profit. This will have two
consequences with serious repercussions in the near future. The first is
that the world economic structures which have existed up to now will have to
undergo significant changes. Secondly, there will be an increased danger of
uncontrollable economic shocks.
Jacques Atalie in his marvellous book "The Millennium" recalls that the
Dutch cities which contributed so much to modern civilisation in the 15th
and 16th centuries declined because of the temptation to spend more than
they earned and to accumulate more debts than they could bear. Is this not,
however, the illness of all modern governments, from the USA to Europe,
Russia and Japan and the horrific debt problems of Brasil, Argentina and
Mexico? Is this not a warning of the potential collapse of the entire
financial system or at least of its entire lack of correspondence to modern
day needs?
Of course, these debts and the mountains of bad debts are not
distributed evenly between all states. The USA and France face huge
problems, Germany and Japan much less and least of all, and practically
non-existent - such countries as China, Indonesia and Southern Korea whose
economies are at the beginning of an undoubted period of ascendency. This
divergence in the positions of countries and nations in the context of
global economic transformations will alter their place and their role in the
world economy. The whole of the 21st century will be a time of economic
levelling if, of course, the world turns its back on the old order and
successfully enters the new civilisation. This process of levelling-out will
at the same time be in conflict with cultural and industrial traditions,
differences in social welfare, macro-economic criteria and standards etc..
The fundamental elements of the plan put forward by the French Prime
Minister, Alain Jupe, in the autumn of 1995 were targetted at France joining
the European Monetary Union and reaching a position level with the other
European states. We can all remember the huge reaction and the large-scale
protests in responce to the threat of losing social benefits and privileges.
Such shocks will be caused with every integration and this is one of the
most fundamental elements of global economic reform. Large scale structural
reforms will take place with the implementation of the common European
currency. The difficulties related to the integration into the EU of Eastern
European countries will be even more difficult. The integration of Russia
will be slow and painful and even more so in the case of the poorly
developed Asian and African states.
However, there is no reasonable alternative. The processes of
integration will continue to developed and will lead eventually to a
large-scale global renewal. For this reason, in my opinion, the change in
the economic roles of the various countries and nations, the globalisation
of financial and commodities markets, the opening of millions of niche
markets in Eastern Europe and Asia, the inadequacy of the world financial
system, the mountain of debts and the re-solution of economic imbalance must
be considered as the collapse of the old and the beginning of the new
economic order. It has taken many nations five hundred years to establish
their national economies. Today they are becoming integrated and this in its
wake will bring about the enormous integration of labour, knowledge and
abilities.
4. THE NEW MASTERS OF THE WORLD
The globalisation of the world has lead to the appearance of new groups
of leaders whose influence and power is many times greater than that of the
majority of politicians. They are not always well-known but they control a
huge portion of the world economy and finances, the global media and
communications and their power is not subject to any serious regulation.
E
very day billions of television viewers watch the leading world news
stories. Almost every day somewhere in the world there are elections or
other important political events. The politicians are presented or present
themselves as the most important decision makers. This was the case in the
20th century. With the demise of many monarchies politicians have become the
heroes and the undisputed leaders of the world. Is this still really the
case today?
Yes, but only superficially. Since with the consolidation of the global
world, the opening-up of societies and the embracing of the international
market there are new territories for world domination. Someone had to come
in to take control of international, economic, cultural and media business.
Someone who would not be limited by national boundaries and who had to have
enough money. These were the global businessmen.
At the beginning of the century, the trans-national businessmen were
mainly colonisers. Today they are legally in control of 80% of world trade,
about the same amount of technology and about 1/3 of world manufacturing.
The number and the influence of the transnational corporations is constantly
on the increase. Their leaders account for the major part of the new
economic elite of the world whose power is now unequalled. Who can predict
in what part of the world it is most profitable to manufacture a certain
type of item? Who can invest enormous sums into science and technology in
the aims of breaking into a market? Who can transfer billions of dollars
from one end of the world to the other in a matter of hours? Only they can -
the newly emerging leaders of the modern world.
Almost no-one stands above the international business leaders. They
control international technological and information exchange. They own the
majority of the satellites used for relaying television programmes. They
also own the global information and television networks. What is more
important, the leaders of the trans-national corporations are constantly
expanding their power. Now they want free, open markets, the removal of all
state limitations and the implementation of neo-liberal policies. On the
other hand the world economic leaders want more dialogue with each other.
How can they devide their spheres of influence? Where will they direct their
investment resources? Where and what markets and what to aim for? The common
objective uniting these new leaders is the removal of all state barriers to
their eventual domination of the world. If they persist at their present
rate to expand the international and industrial corporations within 20-30
years they will have succeeded in dominating practically the entire area of
international trade, and they will have achieved a monopoly of world
communications and distribution of technology.
Ted Turner and CNN, Rupert Murdoch and his media empire and even the
smaller press magnates such as M.Ringer in Switzerland today have much
greater influence over people than the presidents of the majority of
countries in the world. While in the context of individual national states
it is possible to speak of anti-monopoly legislation, in international
business "everything is permitted". If things continue to develop as they
have been doing up to now, within 15-20 years we will be faced with
extremely complex problems.
The media are little concerned with the new leaders of the world. Only
a handful of the great financial players find their way into the television
studios: owners of banks and financial companies who control the movements
of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. Quietly but unerringly they are
creating a power, more powerful than any government and which creates its
own rules of its own game. The leaders of the world financial capital can
influence exchange rates and pour in funds from all corners of the earth.
Very often they are so influential in world economics that they can compel
national governments, including the great powers, to play along with them
and take the relevant decisions.
This is so incongruous! These new integrational economic structures
appear completely to lack any form of political regulation or at the best
have only some sort of political facade. This is one of the reasons why
global relations have been so undeviatingly infiltrated by the mafia with
enormous sums of money from drugs, prostitution, currency speculation and so
on. This is also why the citizens of the world are becoming more and more
dependent on the transnational economic elite, rather than the politicians
they have elected.
If rules are not brought into this international game, if the world
does not establish institutions for their regulation and control, if
policies towards the poorly developed nations are not changed, then very
soon the world financial elite will begin to rule world development alone.
This is the greatest contradiction used by the hidden leaders - while
economic and cultural life is becoming more and more internationalised and
globalised, governments are remaining nationally limited. People see them as
weak and helpless in the face of events. I am far from the thought that the
leaders of the world corporations are bad people or that they ought to be
proclaimed enemies and proponents of imperialism. The world cannot develop
without them but if things remain as they are, the positive role of the
transnational companies as the driving force in the world might be
undermined.
When I speak of chaos and disorder and the unsatisfactory regulation of
the world, I mean categorically the inadequacy of the international economic
infrastructure and the lack of of sufficient international political and
legal regulatory bodies. Such a situation hides many dangers for humanity:
unregulated financial operations, unregulated monopolisation, international
mafia, the danger of periodical crises. What is more important: the greater
the share of transnational companies in world production the more countries
will open up to one another, the longer there is an absence of global rules
to the game, the greater will be the danger of an increase in serious
crises.
5 THE MARCH OF THE POOR
During the blazing summer of the 1985 in Hungary, a tanker lorry was
stopped on a motorway. The tanker was filled with the corpses of Asians
travelling secretly to Western Europe. They had died of suffocation and heat
exhaustion in their flight from poverty to salvation. Every year millions of
citizens from the poorly developed countries set their sights on the rich
countries of the West, using all possible legal and illegal means. Their
march continues...
T
he politicians and their supporters in the most developed nations of
the world can recline in complete, blissful peace. They have complete
information on the condition of the poor, but they have neither experienced
their problems, not demonstrate any particular desire to help them. It is
difficult, very difficult, when you live in Zurich, Cannes, Barcelona or
Salzburg to believe that at the moment when you are giving a piece of meat
to your dog, somewhere in the world tens of thousands of children are
suffering from hunger and illnesses connected with hunger.
One of my friends, a member of the French parliament, told me recently,
"There has always been inequality between nations and humanity is used to
it." I do not agree. Despite the eternal inequalities between the developed
and underdeveloped, during the past 20 or 30 years something has taken place
which has radically changed and will continually the position of the
under-developed nations.
Thanks to world media and, in particular, to television for the first
time they have become aware of how really poor they are. 20 or 30 or even 50
years ago the citizens of India, Bangladesh, Congo or Ruanda were really
unaware of the huge difference in the living standards between their
countries and the most developed nations of the world. If they did know,
this was not common knowledge. The situation was more or less similar in
Eastern Europe and Russia where poverty and the reaction of the poor led to
the acceptance of social utopias and their elevation into official state
religions.
Globalisation brings peoples closer but also gives rise to new concerns
about inequalities. Via the medium of television and other means of
communication, people around the whole world have become aware of the
enormous differences in ways of life and the enormous injustices existing in
the world. This is a new phenomenon and if it persist then it will give rise
to a wave of reactions from the poorer nations. New means of communications
unite us, make us look at the world as a global village, but this openness
runs the risk of creating new conflicts arising from imbalance.
The largest and most compact populations of poor people (according to
the criteria of the UN on poverty) exist in Southern Asia - about 550
million people. 130-140 million poor people live in Eastern Asia and no
fewer than 220-230 million in the Middle East and North Africa. About 260
million live in sub-Saharan Africa and about 100 million in Latin America.
In addition, there are about 200 million poor people in the industrialised
countries.
The gap between the rich and the poor is dismaying. The twenty richest
nations in the world produce a GNP per head of population of between 16,600
(Australia) and 33,500 (Switzerland) USD. The twenty poorest nations,
according to the same criteria, vary between 72 USD (Mozambique) and 261
(Ruanda)[26]. This enormous difference cannot be resolved using
conventional methods.
Nevertheless, if we are to take the market and international
corporation as the only means of salvation, this would mean that the
technological, financial and social gap between the poor and the rich
countries would become even wider. This has been seen in the last 30-40
years. Even now the gap between the poor and the rich countries and people
is self-perpetuating. This is one of the most convincing signs of the crisis
of modern world structures.
Humanity undoubtedly is to blame for such a state in Mozambique,
Tanzania, Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam, Ethiopia and other less developed
countries. They were all until recently former colonies of the most
developed nations and many of their priceless historical and cultural
artifacts can be seen in museums and private collections in Paris, London,
New York and Geneva. They have all experienced bitter armed struggles and
periods of instability. Measures taken by the UN and other world
organisations to assist the poor have been mainly cosmetic. If these trends
persist and if liberal market illusions are not substituted with something
else, then the hidden dangers may become apparent for all to see. In the
most general terms I refer to this danger as the march of the poor.
One of the most significant manifestations of this condition is the
migration of the poor to the larger towns. Tens of millions of people in
Asia, Africa and South America have left their places of birth to migrate to
the cities, transforming what until were recently small towns into
megapolises consisting of shanty towns and primitive suburbs with
multi-million populations. Despite the efforts of the national governments
this process continues. It has transformed Mexico city, Rio de Janeiro,
Calcutta, Bombay and tens of other cities into places with an enormous,
unmanageable poor population. The poor come to the large cities in search of
food, work and a chance for their children. Perhaps, the most important
reason for this is the desire to reap the benefits of the familiar values of
civilisation. The images on the television screen and mass advertising
campaigns are the most powerful of all magnets, compelling the poor to flee
from their traditional way of life. In all corners of the world where
poverty is a typical phenomenon, this process is continuing. This is
particularly the case in those places where there is no private land
ownership or where land ownership does not bring satisfaction of sufficient
economic results.
The second logical consequence of the march of the poor is emigration
to the most developed countries of the world. In recent decades the 25 most
developed nations have been the object of mass immigration for foreigners.
They enter their "Eldorado" with the help of relatives, false documents,
locked in goods containers and lorries. The liberal dream of the open
society will result in the increase of the flow of the poor looking for work
and peace of mind in the rich countries. In this way the liberalism of
openness will backfire.
Given the present world economic order the richest countries will have
to create stronger barriers to emigration and to build new Iron, Stone and
Wooden curtains between their countries and the rest of the world. I do not
want to be a prophet of doom but such divisions would drag humanity into a
dangerous dimension for human development. Forecasts show that the situation
in the European community will become particulary complex. At the moment in
Germany there are about 4.4 million immigrants, in France - 2.4, in Great
Britain - 1.2 and in Holland about 0.6. In the EU in total there are over 10
million immigrants. According to some calculations if the flow of immigrants
is not limited within the next 5-7 years this number could double. This
march of the poor could have explosive consequences in the developed
countries and at the same time result in a "brain drain" from the poorer,
limiting their chances of improving the standard of living. There is also
the danger of the rich western countries reacting by closing their borders
and isolating themselves. According to the agreement reached in Schengen
which limited the possibilities of many nations to travel within Western
Europe there has been a stream of reactions and disappointment which is
difficult to describe. Many Eastern Europeans are convinced that they have
been deceived by the West and that the Berlin Wall has been reconstructed by
western politicians. The pressure for free access to the rich West will
continue and no administrative barriers appear to be able to stop it.
When speaking of the march of the poor, I also have in mind their
growing tendency towards self-protection and resistance. I am quite sure
that if they do not receive the opportunity to make changes the poor of the
world will unite in search of a new universal ideology. The same reasons
which led to the October revolution in Russia and transformed communism into
the greatest utopia of the 20th century might also create new or re-create
old social views.
Poverty has always given birth and will continue to give birth to
utopian views and dreams of a rapid leap into wealth. The great leap
promised by Mao Tse Tung, the promises made by Khrushchev about the
communist paradise and even Hitler's Third Reich were part of the illusory
belief in the supernatural force of power, human will and violence. The 20th
century was a time of competing utopias. In the new era it will be much more
difficult to achieve similar unity simply because of the influence of the
mass media and economic dependence. However, these means of indirect control
might themselves be powerless. It is unlikely that the poor will look back
to communism. It is more likely that they will look for salvation in
nationalism and in particular in religious fundamentalism and new
totalitarian doctrines. The great danger for the world in the post-cold-war
period may come from the combination of economic problems and the struggle
for cultural survival. If the present world economic order is preserved, in
the next 10-15 years we shall undergo a series of strong economic and social
shocks which will come from the poorer regions. They may take the form of
local wars, the political influence of fundamentalist unions, protest
movements of immigrants in the industrial countries etc.. The other side of
the coin is a possible xenophobic reaction.
Xenophobia in the richest nations and fundamentalism in the poorer are
the two extremes, two major products of the emerging crisis. They are the
catalysts for other conflicts between cultures and religions and between the
ethnic groups in search of a unifying force. Many researchers believe
xenophobia a transitional stage. I, however, believe that it will
periodically re-occur in direct connection with the level of cultural
conflicts within the open world.
Those who are aware of their poverty will aspire to overcome their
problems and to identify their own fate with common ideas, common religions
or new idols and leaders. Today the situation is still transitional. The
poor are desperate rather than unified in a common awareness, but this will
change. The reaction of the poor contributed to the success of the Islamic
fundamentalists in Algeria, the high level of support for the fundamentalist
party in Turkey at the local elections in 1994 and the parliamentary
elections in 1996 and to the consolidation of the regime of the Ayatollahs
in Iran. The march of the poor is a fact and a product simultaneously of
globalisation and the world order which is still inadequate to meet its
demands.
If we accept liberal ideas as sufficient in modern times, this will
lead to a new division of the world, to the appearance of new leaders as
well as Utopias offering protection to the poor of the world. The way in
which we can avoid such a potential outcome lies in world integration, in
the establishment of a new world political and economic order and an
entirely new kind of global society. This is the task which faces us, which
faces the new generation of politicians above all in the industrialised
countries.
Such a task cannot be resolved at summit meetings, like the one in
Copenhagen in March 1995. It is not general discussion or promises of new
charity but profound structural reforms in the world economy which will help
to resolve the problems. This includes specific programmes for the
stimulation of investments in the least developed nations, an increase in
the role of the UN and the restructuring of the activities of the IMF and
the World Bank etc..
Fundamentalism and terrorism, the danger of reestablishing opposition
between political blocs, the appearance of new utopias are all dangers which
express the crisis of the transition to a new world. No-one will be spared:
not the Europeans bathed in the luxury of social welfare, nor the dynamic
USA, nor the over-ambitious Japanese. Realisation of poverty is one of the
most important phenomena which the opening of the world and new
communications has caused. It may lead to more and more violent reactions,
alienation and a hatred for the rich countries and their elites. Did anyone
believe that we would become witness to such senseless acts of terrorism as
the bomb attack in Oklahama city or the Tokyo Metro in 1995. The bomb
attacks in Paris and Lyons carried out by unknown extremists caused grave
concern throughout Europe. These will hardly be the last. This is how it was
in past civilisations when different cultures and different levels of wealth
clashed. The other possibility is a rapid and coordinated change in the
world economic order. The most developed nations and their governments will
have to make a choice between global concern and responsibility or growing
instability for all.
6. A NUMBER OF PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOS
Periods of transition in human development resemble a tunnel with a
In the context of the bi-polar model the world was governed by two
super powers and a group of nations dependent on them. Today the level of
direct government has sharply declined. After the collapse of the USSR a
number of new pretenders to world leadership have appeared and before our
very eyes the roles and relations of former allies have changed radically.
Politics is no longer two-dimensional but an equation with hundreds of
unknowns. A clear example of the ontradictions between the great powers can
be seen in the war in the former Yugoslavia. The vested interests of certain
states, in assisting various leaders and arming different armies demonstrate
that the old political tradition, the tradition of the bi-polar world has
long since passed away.
Or let us take Europe. The unification of the two Germanies did not
only impose a series of new responsibilities on West Germany but has created
complex problems for pan-European processes. Germany transferred part of the
burden of unification on to its European partners via the mechanisms of
international financial relations. The integration of the two German states
has changed the structure of Europe and the relations of the states within
it. The granting ofassociate membership status to the Eastern European
countries within the structures of the EU seemed in 1989-1991 a relatively
easy task but was soon delayed almost indefinitely. This was to a certain
extent because of the unwillingness of Russia to allow itself to be
encircled by a new "iron" or other type of curtain. The place and role of
Russia itself in the global community are still unclear.
In the global aspect the collapse of the Eastern European regimes has
had even greater consequences. The collapse of the Soviet Union and its
economic potential to all intents and purposes removed one of the two main
super powers from the geo-political map. Only the USA remains. A number of
years have passed and there are already voices which proclaim that the super
powers are no longer necessary. France has offered to extend its nuclear
umbrella over Germany. Germany and Japan have demonstrated their desires to
become permanent members of the Security Council.Russia has officially
requested membership of the group of the most developed nations.
The collapse of the Eastern European economic and political structures
has opened up a hole in world economic relations with consequences for the
world economic order. A not insignificant number of investments have flowed
into Eastern Europe. West Germany's great commitments to its new Eastern
provinces have resulted in a deterioration in the condition of the European
exchange rate system. Without the burdens of such problems, Japan and a
number of other countries in the Far East have continued to develop their
potential and to exert more and more influence on the world economic
processes. China has demonstrated high levels of growth and a flourishing
economy. The changes in South Africa and the forthcoming transition in Hong
Kong have encouraged high levels of investment and movement of funds.
In 1992 and 1993 while delivering lectures in Switzerland and the USA I
emphasised on several occasions that geo-political turbulence will affect
the world financial systems. Even today few people really believe in this
although the facts are there for all to see. In the winter and spring of
1995 the American dollar began to tumble against the Japanese yen. The world
financial markets became very worried and the most prominent financial
experts explained it away with the American budget deficit, the crisis of
the Mexican peso or ambitions to increase American export. What really
happened demonstrates the reduced abilities of governments and central banks
to exercise effective control over international economic relations. Certain
"invisible" private forces are already in control of the world economy and
are rarely affected by governmental influence.
Moreover, the first symptoms of uncotrollability appeared directly
after the collapse of the Brenton Woods system at the beginning of the
1970's when in March 1973 Richard Nixon allowed the dollar to float. For
almost a quarter of a century the dollar has been trying to find its levels
via floating exchange rates and now we are on the eve of a new governmental
vacuum. The reason for this is the constant increase in the role of the
private banks and unidentified financial funds in global economics, the
growth in the role of centrifugal effects in the world financial systems. In
the spring of 1995 the director of the International Monetary Fund,
M.Cammedessu, declared that in the near future and with its present
structures the IMF would not be able to continue to fulfil its functions.
"We are living in a dangerous world" were the words of Cammedessu. His
trepidations were emphasised by the constant growth in unregulated funds of
money as well as by the growing mountain of state and private debts etc..
Neither the present international financial system nor the entire world
economic and political order will be able to prevent any possible crises.
The chaos has affected the spiritual relations, thinking and value
systems of people. The world communist movement underwent a catastrophe with
negative repercussion for a number of other socialist and social democratic
movements. On the other hand, the unpreparedness of the West to act quickly
and the clear inadequacy of liberal doctrines to stop the crisis showed that
they are unable to offer a miracle treatment. Many politicians in attempts
to avoid divergence between reality and ideas have stated that it is no
longer political programmes or ideologies which are important but pragmatic
action. As in other similar historical transitional periods a large number
of people are confused and prefer to take refuge in local pragmatism and
finding solutions only to current problems. The lack of a common view about
how one should approach the new situation has opened the door to
nationalism, ethnic ambitions and xenophobia. A significant number of world
politicians have been compelled to turn their attention to current problem
solving and to ignore global and regional problems. It is becoming more and
more evident that there is a need for a global analysis on what is taking
place, its consequences and a search for a solution to the chaos which is
ensuing. Today there is no doctrine or common theory about the future of the
world, or how to solve our common problems: the global economic order, the
environment, poverty, religious tolerance, stabilisation of growth etc..
This is one of the reasons why nationalism often comes to the fore in the
search for solutions to global problems.
The attitudes of the younger generations is a very important indication
of the spiritual crisis. I often speak to my colleagues who are lecturers in
various institutions of higher education in the industrialised countries of
the world. In the less developed countries the situation is less clear. The
young people in these countries want to achieve the material prosperity of
the richest nations which is in itself strong motivation. In the USA, Japan,
France, Great Britain, Canada and Germany, however, for quite a long time
now, students and young people have no overall idea about their future. The
ambition of achieving a certain level of material prosperity, a large bank
account, one's own business, to travel abroad and so on, are largely
manifestations of tradition rather than anything else.
But what does this mean? Healthy interests and the stability of the
system? Or, rather, a spiritual crisis in a vacuum expressed by the new
generations in the most developed countries drowning in luxury and spiritual
consumerism.
World history has witnessed other periods of chaos and disorder of
global structures: some longer some shorter. The problem is that the changes
which are taking place today are not as the result of wars in which the
victor imposes his will with force. The globalisation of the world has led
to a universal crisis of the current world order. This is a crisis of the
entire world system, of national and regional thinking and consequently
everything else which typifies the Third Civilisation. Within global
relations there is a new spiritual, economic and political vacuum. If these
vacuums are not filled with adequate changes to world structures, there may
be indescribable consequences. Why has there been such an explosion of
religious sects in recent years? Why has terrorism become a global problem
and is more and more uncompromising and violent in its forms? Why are people
becoming more alienated from politics? Why has fundamentalism spread into
new territories? Why has international crime grown so much?
The reason is that the current world order is not adequate to respond
to the new realities. NATO and the USA alone are not capable of resolving
world conflicts. This may even lead to a reaction from Russia or China and
new divisions within the world. The UN does not have the strength to stop
conflicts. It is becoming apparent that many elements of the current world
system are outdated and its major mechanisms have to be changed and
repaired.
The manifold lack of clarity in international political and economic
relations are an expression of an inadequately low level of agreement
between countries and the expectation that everything will resolve itself.
The disorder is on such a large scale that it requires common action on the
basis of universally accepted principles. Of course, the world today is much
more integrated. This should not be seen so much as an advantage but as a
condition for overcoming the chaos more rapidly and for allowing integration
to develop. This will also require some form of world coordination, of
mutually acceptable decisions and the growth in the role of organisations
such as the UN. It would, however, be imprudent to suppose that the problems
with which we are faced will be resolved quickly and conclusively. This will
require a relatively longer period. The new world order will develop
gradually, based on mutually agreeable action .This conclusion is based on
the fact that the real world powers are still acting from their position as
nation states and their national responsibilities and will only change the
international rules of the game within that context. This is logical but it
also carries a risk. Given a variety of events and varying conditions any
one country with a more dominant global role by changing its internal order
runs the risk of causing a universal cataclysm.
Globalisation and its progeny - the global world, will lead to a crisis
not only of traditional international relations but also of the political
systems of national societies. The interests of more and more people stretch
beyond the bounds of a single state and depend less and less on the
decisions of a single government. Everywhere in the developed world there is
a decline in trust for traditional political systems and a need for new
decisions. Thus:
1. The lack of a mechanism for reliable international, economic and
political regulations;
2. The contradiction between the unlimited global power of world
corporations and the limited power of governmental decisions;
3. The reactions of 2.5-3 billion poor people in the unification of
humanity into a single mutually dependent whole;
4. The danger of new nationalism and the restoration the division of
the world into blocs;
5. The possibility of the bi-polar model being exchanged for a
mono-centric world structure and the domination of one or a group of rich
states;
6. The destruction of small cultures and the dilution of national
traditions and values;
7. The limitation of the private life of the individual and his
transformation into a "manipulated animal" by the new media;
8. The crisis of traditional political systems;
9. Terrorism and international crime;
All this factors are expressions of the disorder and danger of chaos -
an expression of the crisis of the borders between the two epochs.
2. GEOPOLITICAL COLLAPSE
One of the most important consequences of the collapse of the Eastern
European
totalitarian regimes was the change in geo-political structures. The
bi-polar
world seems to have collapsed irreversibly.
T
he "modern" age which has occupied the last five centuries in the
development of humanity has been a time of the creation and consolidation of
nation states, of the formation of alliances and opposing political blocs.
After the collapse of the Berlin wall a series of global processes began
which were to lead to gradual but irreversible changes in the world
political order. Directly after the fall of the"totalitarian regimes in
Eastern Europe the majority of political commentators and researchers
considered that the problem would be limited to the collapse of the USSR and
a number of smaller Eastern European states and thereafter their inclusion
in the structures of the developed nations of NATO and the EU. Such
one-sided views continue to predominate today, despite the fact that most
people are aware of their inadequacies. The problem is that after the
explosion in Eastern Europe a slow but unstoppable process of universal
geopolitical change began. I refer to this process as "geo-political
collapse", since it affected the political structures typical of the entire
twentieth century and in a broader context, the entire Third Civilisation.
What is clear is that the map of Europe is being reshaped. However, let
us look at the rest of the world. Despite the strong influence of Russia in
Central Asia there is a growing conflict of interests between a number of
Islamic states and China. The unification of Germany has changed the
proportionality of power in central Europe. There is no need for detailed
forecasts in this area although there are certain clear trends emerging
which seem to herald the end of the old world order.
The first wave of the geo-political collapse clearly took place in
Eastern Europe and most significantly in the USSR. The second will be
connected with the increase in the political importance of Europe (above all
Germany) and Japan. he role of the USA, the only remaining super power, will
be to provide a balance with all the consequences which that entails. The
third wave will be a consequence of the increase in the economic and the
political importance of a number of smaller countries in South Eastern
Europe, Asia and Latin America.
At the beginning of the 1990's we were witnesses not only to the
collapse of the Eastern European political structures but also to the
potential of profound changes within the West. There is no doubt that the
borders of the European community will move towards the East and that the
role of Germany in this process will be extremely significant.
The consolidation of the European Union and the creation of a single
European currency which appears to have strong political
support[25] presuppose a number of changes in trans-Atlantic
cooperation. I do not believe that trans-Atlantic ties will weaken but I do
believe that the creation of a common European currency will bring about
many changes in their nature, scale and direction.
It is true that a large number of lesser developed states still do not
have the self-confidence and strength to undertake independent activities.
Even if this were to happen, such ideas would develop in isolation rather
than as a part of a logical process. For the moment the countries outside
the Group of 25 are strongly dependent on the most developed nations.
Amongst them, however, there are a number of nations with growing ambitions
for more economic and political influence. Which will be stronger?
Integration or an eruption of ambitions and the struggle for new influence?
The question is whether the struggle for free economic and political
relations will begin in Asia, Africa or Latin America? Will this not be
stronger than the processes of global integration?
In any event one thing is clear - the old world order created between
the 18th and 19th centuries by a group of advanced European states and the
two super powers which emerged in the 20th century is now a thing of the
past. The old geo-political world is collapsing before our eyes and not only
as a consequence of the collapse of the USSR. In the autumn of 1995 the
voters in Quebec very nearly voted for secession from Canada which could
have lead to the real collapse of the Canadian state. Almost daily,
politicians and civil servants in the European capital of Brussels reiterate
the view that the USA should no longer play the role of a super power. In
Paris the views are even more categorical. The state of chaos is due to the
fact that the world is undergoing transition. There are many processes and
situations within this transition as well as many unpredictable deviations.
3. ECONOMIC TURBULENCE
Colossal disproportions have accumulated within the financial systems
of the world. Until now they have not lead to any great crises because of
the regulatory role played by the world political order. However, after its
total collapse are we not bound to feel the cold embrace of instability and
chaos?
O
n the 1st of September 1995 the world news agencies reported an
emerging financial crisis in the most prosperous of post-war economies -
Japan. Thousands of investors withdrew their deposits from the Kisu Credit
Union in Osaka and the Hiogo bank in Kobe which were then closed to all
kinds of banking operations. Their clients wanted to withdraw over 3 billion
US dollars or almost 1/4 of the total deposits of the union. The
bankruptcies of a number of Japanese credit unions and the unprecedented
problems they caused for a number of large banks cast huge doubts about the
stability of the banking system in Japan. The reason for such shocks is the
huge amount of debt accumulated in the 1980's when stock exchange prices
were very high and suddenly fell as a result of the global recession.
The problem, however, is more complex. More and more people are
becoming aware of the fact that the debts accumulated by governments and
individual financial structures will not be repaid. The enormous debt of the
American government and the increased indebtedness of other developed
countries pose a question about the efficacy of the world financial system.
It is true that in contrast to the Great Depression of the 1939, the banks
and national governments now have much greater reserves and experience in
avoiding financial crises. However, it is also true that such colossal debts
are possible in the conditions of guaranteed political economic regulation
and a clear and stable political order. The trust in the major currencies is
based not only on their real condition but on their established monopoly of
the world markets.
It is not difficult to comprehend that if the geo-political
restructuring does take place then political and military factors will lose
their influence and the problem with debt will prove catastrophic. There is
a direct link between the changes in world political structures and
stability of the existing financial systems. Neither of them are adequate
for the conditions of the epoch which we are now entering.
Of course, the world economy will continue for a certain length of time
to develop positively. The reasons for this are the newly opened markets of
Eastern Europe, Russia and South East Asia in particular. Countries which
had until now been culturally and politically isolated are now attractive to
foreign investors. Care will have to be taken that this growth does not give
rise to further "economic turbulence". For reasons of cheap labour in the
East many manufacturers in Western Europe and America are turning towards
Asia. In 1995 this caused much unrest amongst the German trade unions and
was one of the main factors for concern voiced at the congress of German
Social Democrats in Manheim in autumn of the same year.
There is no doubt that with the democratic development of China and the
smaller dragons within South Eastern Asia and with the opening of the
Eastern European and Russian markets world economic structures will undergo
significant changes. I am almost convinced that many governmental and
private structures will not be able to resist the temptation and will answer
the primitive instincts of competition and profit. This will have two
consequences with serious repercussions in the near future. The first is
that the world economic structures which have existed up to now will have to
undergo significant changes. Secondly, there will be an increased danger of
uncontrollable economic shocks.
Jacques Atalie in his marvellous book "The Millennium" recalls that the
Dutch cities which contributed so much to modern civilisation in the 15th
and 16th centuries declined because of the temptation to spend more than
they earned and to accumulate more debts than they could bear. Is this not,
however, the illness of all modern governments, from the USA to Europe,
Russia and Japan and the horrific debt problems of Brasil, Argentina and
Mexico? Is this not a warning of the potential collapse of the entire
financial system or at least of its entire lack of correspondence to modern
day needs?
Of course, these debts and the mountains of bad debts are not
distributed evenly between all states. The USA and France face huge
problems, Germany and Japan much less and least of all, and practically
non-existent - such countries as China, Indonesia and Southern Korea whose
economies are at the beginning of an undoubted period of ascendency. This
divergence in the positions of countries and nations in the context of
global economic transformations will alter their place and their role in the
world economy. The whole of the 21st century will be a time of economic
levelling if, of course, the world turns its back on the old order and
successfully enters the new civilisation. This process of levelling-out will
at the same time be in conflict with cultural and industrial traditions,
differences in social welfare, macro-economic criteria and standards etc..
The fundamental elements of the plan put forward by the French Prime
Minister, Alain Jupe, in the autumn of 1995 were targetted at France joining
the European Monetary Union and reaching a position level with the other
European states. We can all remember the huge reaction and the large-scale
protests in responce to the threat of losing social benefits and privileges.
Such shocks will be caused with every integration and this is one of the
most fundamental elements of global economic reform. Large scale structural
reforms will take place with the implementation of the common European
currency. The difficulties related to the integration into the EU of Eastern
European countries will be even more difficult. The integration of Russia
will be slow and painful and even more so in the case of the poorly
developed Asian and African states.
However, there is no reasonable alternative. The processes of
integration will continue to developed and will lead eventually to a
large-scale global renewal. For this reason, in my opinion, the change in
the economic roles of the various countries and nations, the globalisation
of financial and commodities markets, the opening of millions of niche
markets in Eastern Europe and Asia, the inadequacy of the world financial
system, the mountain of debts and the re-solution of economic imbalance must
be considered as the collapse of the old and the beginning of the new
economic order. It has taken many nations five hundred years to establish
their national economies. Today they are becoming integrated and this in its
wake will bring about the enormous integration of labour, knowledge and
abilities.
4. THE NEW MASTERS OF THE WORLD
The globalisation of the world has lead to the appearance of new groups
of leaders whose influence and power is many times greater than that of the
majority of politicians. They are not always well-known but they control a
huge portion of the world economy and finances, the global media and
communications and their power is not subject to any serious regulation.
E
very day billions of television viewers watch the leading world news
stories. Almost every day somewhere in the world there are elections or
other important political events. The politicians are presented or present
themselves as the most important decision makers. This was the case in the
20th century. With the demise of many monarchies politicians have become the
heroes and the undisputed leaders of the world. Is this still really the
case today?
Yes, but only superficially. Since with the consolidation of the global
world, the opening-up of societies and the embracing of the international
market there are new territories for world domination. Someone had to come
in to take control of international, economic, cultural and media business.
Someone who would not be limited by national boundaries and who had to have
enough money. These were the global businessmen.
At the beginning of the century, the trans-national businessmen were
mainly colonisers. Today they are legally in control of 80% of world trade,
about the same amount of technology and about 1/3 of world manufacturing.
The number and the influence of the transnational corporations is constantly
on the increase. Their leaders account for the major part of the new
economic elite of the world whose power is now unequalled. Who can predict
in what part of the world it is most profitable to manufacture a certain
type of item? Who can invest enormous sums into science and technology in
the aims of breaking into a market? Who can transfer billions of dollars
from one end of the world to the other in a matter of hours? Only they can -
the newly emerging leaders of the modern world.
Almost no-one stands above the international business leaders. They
control international technological and information exchange. They own the
majority of the satellites used for relaying television programmes. They
also own the global information and television networks. What is more
important, the leaders of the trans-national corporations are constantly
expanding their power. Now they want free, open markets, the removal of all
state limitations and the implementation of neo-liberal policies. On the
other hand the world economic leaders want more dialogue with each other.
How can they devide their spheres of influence? Where will they direct their
investment resources? Where and what markets and what to aim for? The common
objective uniting these new leaders is the removal of all state barriers to
their eventual domination of the world. If they persist at their present
rate to expand the international and industrial corporations within 20-30
years they will have succeeded in dominating practically the entire area of
international trade, and they will have achieved a monopoly of world
communications and distribution of technology.
Ted Turner and CNN, Rupert Murdoch and his media empire and even the
smaller press magnates such as M.Ringer in Switzerland today have much
greater influence over people than the presidents of the majority of
countries in the world. While in the context of individual national states
it is possible to speak of anti-monopoly legislation, in international
business "everything is permitted". If things continue to develop as they
have been doing up to now, within 15-20 years we will be faced with
extremely complex problems.
The media are little concerned with the new leaders of the world. Only
a handful of the great financial players find their way into the television
studios: owners of banks and financial companies who control the movements
of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. Quietly but unerringly they are
creating a power, more powerful than any government and which creates its
own rules of its own game. The leaders of the world financial capital can
influence exchange rates and pour in funds from all corners of the earth.
Very often they are so influential in world economics that they can compel
national governments, including the great powers, to play along with them
and take the relevant decisions.
This is so incongruous! These new integrational economic structures
appear completely to lack any form of political regulation or at the best
have only some sort of political facade. This is one of the reasons why
global relations have been so undeviatingly infiltrated by the mafia with
enormous sums of money from drugs, prostitution, currency speculation and so
on. This is also why the citizens of the world are becoming more and more
dependent on the transnational economic elite, rather than the politicians
they have elected.
If rules are not brought into this international game, if the world
does not establish institutions for their regulation and control, if
policies towards the poorly developed nations are not changed, then very
soon the world financial elite will begin to rule world development alone.
This is the greatest contradiction used by the hidden leaders - while
economic and cultural life is becoming more and more internationalised and
globalised, governments are remaining nationally limited. People see them as
weak and helpless in the face of events. I am far from the thought that the
leaders of the world corporations are bad people or that they ought to be
proclaimed enemies and proponents of imperialism. The world cannot develop
without them but if things remain as they are, the positive role of the
transnational companies as the driving force in the world might be
undermined.
When I speak of chaos and disorder and the unsatisfactory regulation of
the world, I mean categorically the inadequacy of the international economic
infrastructure and the lack of of sufficient international political and
legal regulatory bodies. Such a situation hides many dangers for humanity:
unregulated financial operations, unregulated monopolisation, international
mafia, the danger of periodical crises. What is more important: the greater
the share of transnational companies in world production the more countries
will open up to one another, the longer there is an absence of global rules
to the game, the greater will be the danger of an increase in serious
crises.
5 THE MARCH OF THE POOR
During the blazing summer of the 1985 in Hungary, a tanker lorry was
stopped on a motorway. The tanker was filled with the corpses of Asians
travelling secretly to Western Europe. They had died of suffocation and heat
exhaustion in their flight from poverty to salvation. Every year millions of
citizens from the poorly developed countries set their sights on the rich
countries of the West, using all possible legal and illegal means. Their
march continues...
T
he politicians and their supporters in the most developed nations of
the world can recline in complete, blissful peace. They have complete
information on the condition of the poor, but they have neither experienced
their problems, not demonstrate any particular desire to help them. It is
difficult, very difficult, when you live in Zurich, Cannes, Barcelona or
Salzburg to believe that at the moment when you are giving a piece of meat
to your dog, somewhere in the world tens of thousands of children are
suffering from hunger and illnesses connected with hunger.
One of my friends, a member of the French parliament, told me recently,
"There has always been inequality between nations and humanity is used to
it." I do not agree. Despite the eternal inequalities between the developed
and underdeveloped, during the past 20 or 30 years something has taken place
which has radically changed and will continually the position of the
under-developed nations.
Thanks to world media and, in particular, to television for the first
time they have become aware of how really poor they are. 20 or 30 or even 50
years ago the citizens of India, Bangladesh, Congo or Ruanda were really
unaware of the huge difference in the living standards between their
countries and the most developed nations of the world. If they did know,
this was not common knowledge. The situation was more or less similar in
Eastern Europe and Russia where poverty and the reaction of the poor led to
the acceptance of social utopias and their elevation into official state
religions.
Globalisation brings peoples closer but also gives rise to new concerns
about inequalities. Via the medium of television and other means of
communication, people around the whole world have become aware of the
enormous differences in ways of life and the enormous injustices existing in
the world. This is a new phenomenon and if it persist then it will give rise
to a wave of reactions from the poorer nations. New means of communications
unite us, make us look at the world as a global village, but this openness
runs the risk of creating new conflicts arising from imbalance.
The largest and most compact populations of poor people (according to
the criteria of the UN on poverty) exist in Southern Asia - about 550
million people. 130-140 million poor people live in Eastern Asia and no
fewer than 220-230 million in the Middle East and North Africa. About 260
million live in sub-Saharan Africa and about 100 million in Latin America.
In addition, there are about 200 million poor people in the industrialised
countries.
The gap between the rich and the poor is dismaying. The twenty richest
nations in the world produce a GNP per head of population of between 16,600
(Australia) and 33,500 (Switzerland) USD. The twenty poorest nations,
according to the same criteria, vary between 72 USD (Mozambique) and 261
(Ruanda)[26]. This enormous difference cannot be resolved using
conventional methods.
Nevertheless, if we are to take the market and international
corporation as the only means of salvation, this would mean that the
technological, financial and social gap between the poor and the rich
countries would become even wider. This has been seen in the last 30-40
years. Even now the gap between the poor and the rich countries and people
is self-perpetuating. This is one of the most convincing signs of the crisis
of modern world structures.
Humanity undoubtedly is to blame for such a state in Mozambique,
Tanzania, Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam, Ethiopia and other less developed
countries. They were all until recently former colonies of the most
developed nations and many of their priceless historical and cultural
artifacts can be seen in museums and private collections in Paris, London,
New York and Geneva. They have all experienced bitter armed struggles and
periods of instability. Measures taken by the UN and other world
organisations to assist the poor have been mainly cosmetic. If these trends
persist and if liberal market illusions are not substituted with something
else, then the hidden dangers may become apparent for all to see. In the
most general terms I refer to this danger as the march of the poor.
One of the most significant manifestations of this condition is the
migration of the poor to the larger towns. Tens of millions of people in
Asia, Africa and South America have left their places of birth to migrate to
the cities, transforming what until were recently small towns into
megapolises consisting of shanty towns and primitive suburbs with
multi-million populations. Despite the efforts of the national governments
this process continues. It has transformed Mexico city, Rio de Janeiro,
Calcutta, Bombay and tens of other cities into places with an enormous,
unmanageable poor population. The poor come to the large cities in search of
food, work and a chance for their children. Perhaps, the most important
reason for this is the desire to reap the benefits of the familiar values of
civilisation. The images on the television screen and mass advertising
campaigns are the most powerful of all magnets, compelling the poor to flee
from their traditional way of life. In all corners of the world where
poverty is a typical phenomenon, this process is continuing. This is
particularly the case in those places where there is no private land
ownership or where land ownership does not bring satisfaction of sufficient
economic results.
The second logical consequence of the march of the poor is emigration
to the most developed countries of the world. In recent decades the 25 most
developed nations have been the object of mass immigration for foreigners.
They enter their "Eldorado" with the help of relatives, false documents,
locked in goods containers and lorries. The liberal dream of the open
society will result in the increase of the flow of the poor looking for work
and peace of mind in the rich countries. In this way the liberalism of
openness will backfire.
Given the present world economic order the richest countries will have
to create stronger barriers to emigration and to build new Iron, Stone and
Wooden curtains between their countries and the rest of the world. I do not
want to be a prophet of doom but such divisions would drag humanity into a
dangerous dimension for human development. Forecasts show that the situation
in the European community will become particulary complex. At the moment in
Germany there are about 4.4 million immigrants, in France - 2.4, in Great
Britain - 1.2 and in Holland about 0.6. In the EU in total there are over 10
million immigrants. According to some calculations if the flow of immigrants
is not limited within the next 5-7 years this number could double. This
march of the poor could have explosive consequences in the developed
countries and at the same time result in a "brain drain" from the poorer,
limiting their chances of improving the standard of living. There is also
the danger of the rich western countries reacting by closing their borders
and isolating themselves. According to the agreement reached in Schengen
which limited the possibilities of many nations to travel within Western
Europe there has been a stream of reactions and disappointment which is
difficult to describe. Many Eastern Europeans are convinced that they have
been deceived by the West and that the Berlin Wall has been reconstructed by
western politicians. The pressure for free access to the rich West will
continue and no administrative barriers appear to be able to stop it.
When speaking of the march of the poor, I also have in mind their
growing tendency towards self-protection and resistance. I am quite sure
that if they do not receive the opportunity to make changes the poor of the
world will unite in search of a new universal ideology. The same reasons
which led to the October revolution in Russia and transformed communism into
the greatest utopia of the 20th century might also create new or re-create
old social views.
Poverty has always given birth and will continue to give birth to
utopian views and dreams of a rapid leap into wealth. The great leap
promised by Mao Tse Tung, the promises made by Khrushchev about the
communist paradise and even Hitler's Third Reich were part of the illusory
belief in the supernatural force of power, human will and violence. The 20th
century was a time of competing utopias. In the new era it will be much more
difficult to achieve similar unity simply because of the influence of the
mass media and economic dependence. However, these means of indirect control
might themselves be powerless. It is unlikely that the poor will look back
to communism. It is more likely that they will look for salvation in
nationalism and in particular in religious fundamentalism and new
totalitarian doctrines. The great danger for the world in the post-cold-war
period may come from the combination of economic problems and the struggle
for cultural survival. If the present world economic order is preserved, in
the next 10-15 years we shall undergo a series of strong economic and social
shocks which will come from the poorer regions. They may take the form of
local wars, the political influence of fundamentalist unions, protest
movements of immigrants in the industrial countries etc.. The other side of
the coin is a possible xenophobic reaction.
Xenophobia in the richest nations and fundamentalism in the poorer are
the two extremes, two major products of the emerging crisis. They are the
catalysts for other conflicts between cultures and religions and between the
ethnic groups in search of a unifying force. Many researchers believe
xenophobia a transitional stage. I, however, believe that it will
periodically re-occur in direct connection with the level of cultural
conflicts within the open world.
Those who are aware of their poverty will aspire to overcome their
problems and to identify their own fate with common ideas, common religions
or new idols and leaders. Today the situation is still transitional. The
poor are desperate rather than unified in a common awareness, but this will
change. The reaction of the poor contributed to the success of the Islamic
fundamentalists in Algeria, the high level of support for the fundamentalist
party in Turkey at the local elections in 1994 and the parliamentary
elections in 1996 and to the consolidation of the regime of the Ayatollahs
in Iran. The march of the poor is a fact and a product simultaneously of
globalisation and the world order which is still inadequate to meet its
demands.
If we accept liberal ideas as sufficient in modern times, this will
lead to a new division of the world, to the appearance of new leaders as
well as Utopias offering protection to the poor of the world. The way in
which we can avoid such a potential outcome lies in world integration, in
the establishment of a new world political and economic order and an
entirely new kind of global society. This is the task which faces us, which
faces the new generation of politicians above all in the industrialised
countries.
Such a task cannot be resolved at summit meetings, like the one in
Copenhagen in March 1995. It is not general discussion or promises of new
charity but profound structural reforms in the world economy which will help
to resolve the problems. This includes specific programmes for the
stimulation of investments in the least developed nations, an increase in
the role of the UN and the restructuring of the activities of the IMF and
the World Bank etc..
Fundamentalism and terrorism, the danger of reestablishing opposition
between political blocs, the appearance of new utopias are all dangers which
express the crisis of the transition to a new world. No-one will be spared:
not the Europeans bathed in the luxury of social welfare, nor the dynamic
USA, nor the over-ambitious Japanese. Realisation of poverty is one of the
most important phenomena which the opening of the world and new
communications has caused. It may lead to more and more violent reactions,
alienation and a hatred for the rich countries and their elites. Did anyone
believe that we would become witness to such senseless acts of terrorism as
the bomb attack in Oklahama city or the Tokyo Metro in 1995. The bomb
attacks in Paris and Lyons carried out by unknown extremists caused grave
concern throughout Europe. These will hardly be the last. This is how it was
in past civilisations when different cultures and different levels of wealth
clashed. The other possibility is a rapid and coordinated change in the
world economic order. The most developed nations and their governments will
have to make a choice between global concern and responsibility or growing
instability for all.
6. A NUMBER OF PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOS
Periods of transition in human development resemble a tunnel with a